Polls are a snapshot of a particular time. There's always the question of whether or not particular polls are accurate, and that is especially true where the pollsters are asking about an election that is still 14 months away. Nevertheless, polls do tell us important things.
A good example is the latest Quinipiac poll of Iowa Democrats. For the first time, Hillary Clinton has fallen from the lead of likely caucus goers. Bernie Sanders is ahead 41 to 40%. Does that lock up Iowa for Bernie? Of course not! Nevertheless, Hillary's fall from the lead is a continuation of the trend in Iowa, New Hampshire and across the country. Support for Hillary has been heading in only one direction: down. At the same time, the belief that Hillary is neither honest nor trustworthy has been soaring. Democrats were the last holdouts on the honesty question for Hillary. In Iowa, however, the percentage of Democrats who now rate Hillary as untrustworthy is in the 30's. (For non-Democrats, that percentage is over 75%.) Slowly but surely, Hillary is becoming known to everyone as a liar, and that includes all those people who don't bother to watch much news on TV or read news reports in the papers or on the net. It is a devastating blow to Hillary's candidacy.
On the Republican side, a new CNN national poll puts Donald Trump above 30% support among Republicans. This too is important, but Trump has been planting the seeds of his own demise recently, so I wonder how long this support will hold. In the last two days, Trump has shown himself in a really bad light. First he criticized Carly Fiorina for her appearance, not her positions on issues, but her appearance. I think there are still enough Republican voters who think that it's wrong to criticize a candidate (especially a woman) for his/her looks. And in any event, Fiorina looks fine, so Trump seems petty. I mean, some sly comment might be okay, but a direct attack is just rude. Rudeness doesn't play well among a Republican audience.
More important, however, than Trump's attack on Fiorina's looks is his latest attack against Dr. Ben Carson. Trump told an interviewer that Carson was just "an ok doctor". That was truly a stupid move. Many people don't know all that much about Carson, but the one thing that is common knowledge is that he is one great doctor. The man was head of pediatric neurosurgery at Johns Hopkins, not the position for an "ok" doctor. He pioneered all sorts of surgery on children that saved a great many lives. For Trump to demean Carson's accomplishments just makes Trump look like a self promoting and petty man. Not every Trump supporter is going to mind these comments about Carson, but it will be a wake up call for many others. Trump may be lighting the fuse on the explosion of his own candidacy.
I predict that in the next few days we are going to watch Trump walk these comments back quickly.
A good example is the latest Quinipiac poll of Iowa Democrats. For the first time, Hillary Clinton has fallen from the lead of likely caucus goers. Bernie Sanders is ahead 41 to 40%. Does that lock up Iowa for Bernie? Of course not! Nevertheless, Hillary's fall from the lead is a continuation of the trend in Iowa, New Hampshire and across the country. Support for Hillary has been heading in only one direction: down. At the same time, the belief that Hillary is neither honest nor trustworthy has been soaring. Democrats were the last holdouts on the honesty question for Hillary. In Iowa, however, the percentage of Democrats who now rate Hillary as untrustworthy is in the 30's. (For non-Democrats, that percentage is over 75%.) Slowly but surely, Hillary is becoming known to everyone as a liar, and that includes all those people who don't bother to watch much news on TV or read news reports in the papers or on the net. It is a devastating blow to Hillary's candidacy.
On the Republican side, a new CNN national poll puts Donald Trump above 30% support among Republicans. This too is important, but Trump has been planting the seeds of his own demise recently, so I wonder how long this support will hold. In the last two days, Trump has shown himself in a really bad light. First he criticized Carly Fiorina for her appearance, not her positions on issues, but her appearance. I think there are still enough Republican voters who think that it's wrong to criticize a candidate (especially a woman) for his/her looks. And in any event, Fiorina looks fine, so Trump seems petty. I mean, some sly comment might be okay, but a direct attack is just rude. Rudeness doesn't play well among a Republican audience.
More important, however, than Trump's attack on Fiorina's looks is his latest attack against Dr. Ben Carson. Trump told an interviewer that Carson was just "an ok doctor". That was truly a stupid move. Many people don't know all that much about Carson, but the one thing that is common knowledge is that he is one great doctor. The man was head of pediatric neurosurgery at Johns Hopkins, not the position for an "ok" doctor. He pioneered all sorts of surgery on children that saved a great many lives. For Trump to demean Carson's accomplishments just makes Trump look like a self promoting and petty man. Not every Trump supporter is going to mind these comments about Carson, but it will be a wake up call for many others. Trump may be lighting the fuse on the explosion of his own candidacy.
I predict that in the next few days we are going to watch Trump walk these comments back quickly.
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