A friend of mine told me today that after last night's debate, Hillary Clinton may be back on track to win the 2016 presidential race. It was a really funny comment.
First of all, Hillary did not win the debate. As any reader of this blog knows, I did not see the whole debate. Indeed, I will just limit myself to the analysis of pundits and focus groups and polls that have been published on the web. Among the pundits who view these events through the usual Washington lens, Hillary has generally been proclaimed the winner. The focus groups and the instant polls, however, have not agreed, By those indicators, Sanders won and Hillary was crushed. A good example is the internet, unscientific poll taken by the Drudge Report website. As of now, over 300,000 people have voted and Hillary has only gotten less than 9% of the votes. Sanders is in first place with 54% and Webb is in second with 25%. Obviously, the numbers are not precise indicators of what the public thought, but they do give a general picture. If Hillary got less than one vote in eleven out of the three hundred thousand people who voted (it is not possible to vote more than once), then the public did not think that Hillary won.
Second, the biggest problem for Hillary was not last night's debate. It is the House Select Committee on Benghazi and, even more important, the FBI criminal investigations. Mrs. Clinton has no control over either of those events. If the House committee presents a coherent and complete interrogation of Hillary during her appearance on October 22, there will be nothing that she can do to recover from it. By the same token, if the FBI recommends to the Justice Department that Hillary be indicted, it will be the end of her campaign. In fact, it won't take an indictment; all that has to happen is for there to be a leak of some new damaging documents to drive Hillary's poll numbers down to the point of no return.
Third, one has to wonder just how many people watched last night's extravaganza who were on the fence about Hillary and decided in her favor after the debate. The people who usually pay attention would easily have known that Hillary was telling lies again last night. That would not have helped Hillary. Then there are the people who don't usually pay attention. They didn't even watch last night, so no help there either.
First of all, Hillary did not win the debate. As any reader of this blog knows, I did not see the whole debate. Indeed, I will just limit myself to the analysis of pundits and focus groups and polls that have been published on the web. Among the pundits who view these events through the usual Washington lens, Hillary has generally been proclaimed the winner. The focus groups and the instant polls, however, have not agreed, By those indicators, Sanders won and Hillary was crushed. A good example is the internet, unscientific poll taken by the Drudge Report website. As of now, over 300,000 people have voted and Hillary has only gotten less than 9% of the votes. Sanders is in first place with 54% and Webb is in second with 25%. Obviously, the numbers are not precise indicators of what the public thought, but they do give a general picture. If Hillary got less than one vote in eleven out of the three hundred thousand people who voted (it is not possible to vote more than once), then the public did not think that Hillary won.
Second, the biggest problem for Hillary was not last night's debate. It is the House Select Committee on Benghazi and, even more important, the FBI criminal investigations. Mrs. Clinton has no control over either of those events. If the House committee presents a coherent and complete interrogation of Hillary during her appearance on October 22, there will be nothing that she can do to recover from it. By the same token, if the FBI recommends to the Justice Department that Hillary be indicted, it will be the end of her campaign. In fact, it won't take an indictment; all that has to happen is for there to be a leak of some new damaging documents to drive Hillary's poll numbers down to the point of no return.
Third, one has to wonder just how many people watched last night's extravaganza who were on the fence about Hillary and decided in her favor after the debate. The people who usually pay attention would easily have known that Hillary was telling lies again last night. That would not have helped Hillary. Then there are the people who don't usually pay attention. They didn't even watch last night, so no help there either.
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