There were two bombs that exploded today at a peace rally in Ankara in Turkey; the latest death toll is 86 with many more wounded. The rally was calling for an end to the fighting between the Turkish government and the Kurdish group PKK. There is no clear indication yet who is responsible for the bombs. I've seen articles that blame the government and others that blame the Kurds and still others that blame ISIS. The truth is that we don't yet know.
No matter who is responsible, this is an event of extreme importance. Turkey is on the front line of the Syrian mess; it shares a long border with Syria. Millions of refugees have travelled into Turkey fleeing the fighting. US planes operate out of Incirlik air base in southern Turkey. The Turks also are strong opponents of Bashir al Assad in Syria, and they have tried to get the international community to take action against Assad for years. The Turks also have the largest military in the area; they could move against ISIS, Assad, Hezbollah and the Russian/Iranian forces in Syria with a great likelihood of success. Lately, the Russians have been trying to intimidate the Turks by overflying Turkish territory and targeting Turkish jets that are flying near the border. Put all this together and one has to consider whether or not the bombs are the work of the Russians. After all, chaos in Turkey which would result from a ramped up fight between the Kurds and the Turkish government would keep Turkey out of the events in Syria. Hopefully, this is being investigated.
Chaos in Turkey would also serve the purposes of the Iranians who have used large terror bombs in the past. Over a decade ago, the Iranians planted bombs of that sort in Buenos Aires in Argentina that resulted in major casualties. Maybe they are back to that type of attack.
The Turkish government is a possible culprit, but such an event seems unlikely. The Turks would have no problem ignoring the peace march; there is no need for the government to blow up these people. That is even more true of the Kurdish groups. They have no need to blow up peace marchers.
Next comes ISIS. It would certainly use this sort of tactic; death is of no matter to these terrorists. But what would ISIS gain? Clearly, if the Turks and the Kurds escalate their conflict, it is a good result for ISIS much in the same way that it would help Russia and Iran. ISIS, however, would have to consider that if it were discovered that it was behind the bombings, the likelihood of Turkish intervention in the fighting would grow enormously. The Turks could use their large forces to take out ISIS rather quickly. That makes it a risky move by ISIS.
Last, we have to consider Assad or Hezbollah as the force behind the bombings. There is no way that either would carry out such an attack without the advance blessing of Russia and Iran. The reality is that the Russians or Iranians might use them for such an attack in order to hide their own involvement.
The USA cannot ignore this attack. Remember, Turkey is a member of NATO. If it turns out that this bombing was carried out by Russia, Iran, Syria or Hezbollah, article 5 of the NATO treaty requires America and all NATO members to come to the assistance of Turkey. Remember, Turkey still has troops in Afghanistan as part of the NATO mission there that was launched in response to the attacks on the USA on 9-11. Hopefully, president Obama will pay attention to this mess and meet America's commitments.
No matter who is responsible, this is an event of extreme importance. Turkey is on the front line of the Syrian mess; it shares a long border with Syria. Millions of refugees have travelled into Turkey fleeing the fighting. US planes operate out of Incirlik air base in southern Turkey. The Turks also are strong opponents of Bashir al Assad in Syria, and they have tried to get the international community to take action against Assad for years. The Turks also have the largest military in the area; they could move against ISIS, Assad, Hezbollah and the Russian/Iranian forces in Syria with a great likelihood of success. Lately, the Russians have been trying to intimidate the Turks by overflying Turkish territory and targeting Turkish jets that are flying near the border. Put all this together and one has to consider whether or not the bombs are the work of the Russians. After all, chaos in Turkey which would result from a ramped up fight between the Kurds and the Turkish government would keep Turkey out of the events in Syria. Hopefully, this is being investigated.
Chaos in Turkey would also serve the purposes of the Iranians who have used large terror bombs in the past. Over a decade ago, the Iranians planted bombs of that sort in Buenos Aires in Argentina that resulted in major casualties. Maybe they are back to that type of attack.
The Turkish government is a possible culprit, but such an event seems unlikely. The Turks would have no problem ignoring the peace march; there is no need for the government to blow up these people. That is even more true of the Kurdish groups. They have no need to blow up peace marchers.
Next comes ISIS. It would certainly use this sort of tactic; death is of no matter to these terrorists. But what would ISIS gain? Clearly, if the Turks and the Kurds escalate their conflict, it is a good result for ISIS much in the same way that it would help Russia and Iran. ISIS, however, would have to consider that if it were discovered that it was behind the bombings, the likelihood of Turkish intervention in the fighting would grow enormously. The Turks could use their large forces to take out ISIS rather quickly. That makes it a risky move by ISIS.
Last, we have to consider Assad or Hezbollah as the force behind the bombings. There is no way that either would carry out such an attack without the advance blessing of Russia and Iran. The reality is that the Russians or Iranians might use them for such an attack in order to hide their own involvement.
The USA cannot ignore this attack. Remember, Turkey is a member of NATO. If it turns out that this bombing was carried out by Russia, Iran, Syria or Hezbollah, article 5 of the NATO treaty requires America and all NATO members to come to the assistance of Turkey. Remember, Turkey still has troops in Afghanistan as part of the NATO mission there that was launched in response to the attacks on the USA on 9-11. Hopefully, president Obama will pay attention to this mess and meet America's commitments.
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