In the news today, Donald Trump told Today on NBC that despite two "minor" polls that showed Carson ahead in Iowa, he (Trump) is still the frontrunner there. Then, within three hours, two more Iowa polls were issued. These two show Carson far ahead in Iowa. In one he beats Trump 32 to 18% and in the other Carson is ahead 31 to 19% over Trump. Marco Rubio is the only other candidate in double digits in both polls.
I have to say that my only surprise is that it took so long for Trump to falter in Iowa. I've spent a great deal of time in that state, and I could never see the attraction of a brash, self-promoting New Yorker for the GOP voters in Iowa. Oh, for sure, there are some who are excited by Trump's celebrity, but they are now changing their views as they get to see more and more of the Donald. Dr. Carson's calm and polite demeanor plus his message of faith based morality and conservatism plays well among the Iowa electorate. As the weeks continue to pass, I expect that both Marco Rubio and Ted Cruz will pass Trump in Iowa as well. Rubio presents a youthful, attractive face for conservatism with a focus on the future rather than the past. Cruz is a harsher voice but he is never nasty or personal in the way that Trump has been. Both will play well in Iowa.
Iowa voters are very different from those in New Hampshire, South Carolina and Nevada. Trump may keep his leads in those three states if he is able to keep his cool in the face of perceived failure in Iowa. On the other hand, if Trump starts lashing out against Carson in ways that the electorate perceives as nothing more than a political negative attack, the Trump leads in these three states could dissolve as well.
I have to say that my only surprise is that it took so long for Trump to falter in Iowa. I've spent a great deal of time in that state, and I could never see the attraction of a brash, self-promoting New Yorker for the GOP voters in Iowa. Oh, for sure, there are some who are excited by Trump's celebrity, but they are now changing their views as they get to see more and more of the Donald. Dr. Carson's calm and polite demeanor plus his message of faith based morality and conservatism plays well among the Iowa electorate. As the weeks continue to pass, I expect that both Marco Rubio and Ted Cruz will pass Trump in Iowa as well. Rubio presents a youthful, attractive face for conservatism with a focus on the future rather than the past. Cruz is a harsher voice but he is never nasty or personal in the way that Trump has been. Both will play well in Iowa.
Iowa voters are very different from those in New Hampshire, South Carolina and Nevada. Trump may keep his leads in those three states if he is able to keep his cool in the face of perceived failure in Iowa. On the other hand, if Trump starts lashing out against Carson in ways that the electorate perceives as nothing more than a political negative attack, the Trump leads in these three states could dissolve as well.
No comments:
Post a Comment