As the 2016 campaign continues, it's worth taking a step back to consider what the big issues are. The media tends to focus on peripheral stuff like who has raised the most money, who is leading in this poll or that, what stratagem is one campaign or another using to advance its cause, etc. It's just not often that there are media reviews of where all the candidates stand on a particular issue. Even when issues are raised, they are sometimes focused on what can only be called silly stuff. As an example, I would point to the gun control discussion at last night's Democrat debate. There were calls for "simple, common-sense gun regulations", but no one actually said what would be included in those regulations/laws. As a result, we don't get much information about important issues. As a result, it's important to take a look at individual issues and then to consider where the candidates stand on those issues.
The most important issue for 2016 is "the economy and jobs" according to every poll on the subject. America is in the midst of the weakest recovery of the last 100 years from a downturn. There are nearly 100 million Americans who could be employed but who are no longer looking for work. Indeed, the number who no longer even look for work is at the all time high number. The official unemployment rate is just above 5%, but there is another 5% who are working at part time jobs instead of full time jobs and many more who have just given up. The reality of unemployment and underemployment is that at a minimum something like 15% of the population either needs a job or a full time job. Year after year goes by and the average income of the middle class American family keeps getting less and less. Real household income is down about 10% during the Obama years.
So what are the positions of the candidates?
Not much detail was given at last nights Democrat debate, but Hillary Clinton has made clear that she wants to continue the Obama programs but perhaps to do more of them. That's right, Hillary want to put more effort into the things that haven't worked for the last seven years. She also wants to increase taxes on those she calls "wealthy". Actually, that means higher taxes on the middle class and the wealthy since there are just not enough wealthy people for tax increases on them to make any difference. Bernie Sanders likes Obama's programs but he wants to turbocharge them and to also break up the big banks and tax Wall Street speculators. Sanders seems to want to ignore that the biggest investors on Wall Street are actually the pension plans that pay retirement benefits for most of America's middle class. Then there are also those speculating mutual funds and insurance companies that are putting cash into the market to try to get returns for their investors (mostly average Americans) or policy holders (again average Americans.) Sanders, you see, still lives in a world where Wall Street investors are just a few rich families who control everything in America. That world is a complete fiction, however.
Both Clinton and Sanders are also now against any expansion of free trade. They want a world in which the USA doesn't import products from other countries even if those products cost less than what gets manufactured here. Think about your cell phone. If Apple made its I-phones here in the USA, they would cost at least twice what they currently cost. That would mean many fewer people could afford to buy them. There would be more jobs at plants where Apple would make the small number of phones that it could sell, but there would be many fewer jobs at ports and in shipping. There would also be fewer jobs at Apple stores and tech support. After all, you just don't need as many people to sell 1000 phones as you do to sell 5000. Also, with fewer phones sold, Apple would have less money for R&D, so the technological edge held by many American tech companies would be lost over time. And when those people with jobs went to the store to buy clothing, the prices would be much higher. After all, the clothes would all be American made by workers who get at least the new minimum wage of $15 per hour. Your $35 shirt of today would be the $90 shirt (made in America) under these Clinton or Sanders plans.
Clinton and Sanders are also strongly against any expansion of fossil fuel production in the USA. They both now oppose the Keystone XL pipeline. They both also want to slow down drilling for oil or gas in the USA. That means lower production and higher prices. Gasoline that today cost $2.50 a gallon will go up to $4.50 or higher under their plans. And let's not forget the big push that they will make for renewable electric energy. Your monthly electric bill will double or triple, but at least we will all know that tens of thousands of people who work producing coal will, at least, be out of work. And we also know that even if we do all that Clinton and Sanders propose, there will be no real change in the pace of global warming (assuming it actually exists).
In my next installment of this series, I will look at the Republican plans for the economy.
The most important issue for 2016 is "the economy and jobs" according to every poll on the subject. America is in the midst of the weakest recovery of the last 100 years from a downturn. There are nearly 100 million Americans who could be employed but who are no longer looking for work. Indeed, the number who no longer even look for work is at the all time high number. The official unemployment rate is just above 5%, but there is another 5% who are working at part time jobs instead of full time jobs and many more who have just given up. The reality of unemployment and underemployment is that at a minimum something like 15% of the population either needs a job or a full time job. Year after year goes by and the average income of the middle class American family keeps getting less and less. Real household income is down about 10% during the Obama years.
So what are the positions of the candidates?
Not much detail was given at last nights Democrat debate, but Hillary Clinton has made clear that she wants to continue the Obama programs but perhaps to do more of them. That's right, Hillary want to put more effort into the things that haven't worked for the last seven years. She also wants to increase taxes on those she calls "wealthy". Actually, that means higher taxes on the middle class and the wealthy since there are just not enough wealthy people for tax increases on them to make any difference. Bernie Sanders likes Obama's programs but he wants to turbocharge them and to also break up the big banks and tax Wall Street speculators. Sanders seems to want to ignore that the biggest investors on Wall Street are actually the pension plans that pay retirement benefits for most of America's middle class. Then there are also those speculating mutual funds and insurance companies that are putting cash into the market to try to get returns for their investors (mostly average Americans) or policy holders (again average Americans.) Sanders, you see, still lives in a world where Wall Street investors are just a few rich families who control everything in America. That world is a complete fiction, however.
Both Clinton and Sanders are also now against any expansion of free trade. They want a world in which the USA doesn't import products from other countries even if those products cost less than what gets manufactured here. Think about your cell phone. If Apple made its I-phones here in the USA, they would cost at least twice what they currently cost. That would mean many fewer people could afford to buy them. There would be more jobs at plants where Apple would make the small number of phones that it could sell, but there would be many fewer jobs at ports and in shipping. There would also be fewer jobs at Apple stores and tech support. After all, you just don't need as many people to sell 1000 phones as you do to sell 5000. Also, with fewer phones sold, Apple would have less money for R&D, so the technological edge held by many American tech companies would be lost over time. And when those people with jobs went to the store to buy clothing, the prices would be much higher. After all, the clothes would all be American made by workers who get at least the new minimum wage of $15 per hour. Your $35 shirt of today would be the $90 shirt (made in America) under these Clinton or Sanders plans.
Clinton and Sanders are also strongly against any expansion of fossil fuel production in the USA. They both now oppose the Keystone XL pipeline. They both also want to slow down drilling for oil or gas in the USA. That means lower production and higher prices. Gasoline that today cost $2.50 a gallon will go up to $4.50 or higher under their plans. And let's not forget the big push that they will make for renewable electric energy. Your monthly electric bill will double or triple, but at least we will all know that tens of thousands of people who work producing coal will, at least, be out of work. And we also know that even if we do all that Clinton and Sanders propose, there will be no real change in the pace of global warming (assuming it actually exists).
In my next installment of this series, I will look at the Republican plans for the economy.
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