The Des Moines Register has released a poll of Iowa voters today in which Republican Joni Ernst is 6% ahead of Democrat Bruce Braley in the battle for the senate seat from that state. That is a major shift in a race that, until now, has been extremely tight. Of the last six polls in Iowa, neither candidate has had a bigger lead than 1% prior to this latest one.
Normally, the big difference between this poll and the others would indicate that this is a substantial outlier. Indeed, the result may overstate Ernst's lead. Nevertheless, finding such a large lead indicates that there has probably been a shift in the electorate. Perhaps it is because Ernst is a colonel in the Iowa National Guard and has been perceived as strong on defense compared to Braley who has given the opposite impression. There is not enough information in the poll to enable us to determine the reason for the shift.
If the Iowa race is truly moving into the GOP column, it is a devastating blow to the Democrats' chances to keep control of the senate. Six months ago, all of the pundits and prognosticators had Iowa as an easy hold for the Democrats. At that point, the Braley campaign was unleashed and has done more to damage Braley than to help him. Braley famously belittled senator Chuck Grassley as unqualified to sit on the Senate Judiciary Committee because he was just a farmer from Iowa. It makes no sense to belittle farmers anywhere, but doing so in Iowa is a major mistake. (For what it's worth, the latest poll finds Ernst with a lead of roughly 4 to 1 among farmers in Iowa.)
Normally, the big difference between this poll and the others would indicate that this is a substantial outlier. Indeed, the result may overstate Ernst's lead. Nevertheless, finding such a large lead indicates that there has probably been a shift in the electorate. Perhaps it is because Ernst is a colonel in the Iowa National Guard and has been perceived as strong on defense compared to Braley who has given the opposite impression. There is not enough information in the poll to enable us to determine the reason for the shift.
If the Iowa race is truly moving into the GOP column, it is a devastating blow to the Democrats' chances to keep control of the senate. Six months ago, all of the pundits and prognosticators had Iowa as an easy hold for the Democrats. At that point, the Braley campaign was unleashed and has done more to damage Braley than to help him. Braley famously belittled senator Chuck Grassley as unqualified to sit on the Senate Judiciary Committee because he was just a farmer from Iowa. It makes no sense to belittle farmers anywhere, but doing so in Iowa is a major mistake. (For what it's worth, the latest poll finds Ernst with a lead of roughly 4 to 1 among farmers in Iowa.)
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