I have written a few times about the race for governor in Massachusetts. Democrat (and therefore heavy favorite) Martha Coakley is facing Republican Charlie Baker in that contest. In a truly astounding turn of events, it now seems that Coakley may actually lose. Oh, there have been polls in the past that showed the race close and even one that showed Baker ahead, but right now ALL of the reliable polls show the race too close to call. The latest came from the Boston Herald today and it gave Coakley a 1% lead at 44% to 43%.
It is worth noting that in Massachusetts, Democrats usually poll better ahead of election day than in the actual results. Apparently, many folks in the Bay State don't want to admit that they are not going to vote for the Democrats when they speak to pollsters. That means that the tied race in all the reliable polls is actually a slight lead for the Republican. When you add in the large number of undecided voters and make the logical conclusion that they will split against the party in power, it is looking more and more like Baker will actually triumph on election day.
It is not as if Massachusetts has had no Republican governors in recent years. Mitt Romney was, after all, the governor from 2002 to 2006. Romney, however, was much better known in Massachusetts than Baker is today. On top of that, Martha Coakley is well known to voters and she is doing very poorly. Indeed, if the GOP wins this election, it will be more a case that Coakley and the Democrats lost than that the GOP won.
There are still six weeks until election day, so anything can still happen. Nevertheless, there must be a lot of panic setting in over at Coakley headquarters. Remember, in 2010 Coakley lost to Scott Brown for the senate. Will she also lose now for governor? That would make her the first Democrat in modern times to lose for both positions.
It is worth noting that in Massachusetts, Democrats usually poll better ahead of election day than in the actual results. Apparently, many folks in the Bay State don't want to admit that they are not going to vote for the Democrats when they speak to pollsters. That means that the tied race in all the reliable polls is actually a slight lead for the Republican. When you add in the large number of undecided voters and make the logical conclusion that they will split against the party in power, it is looking more and more like Baker will actually triumph on election day.
It is not as if Massachusetts has had no Republican governors in recent years. Mitt Romney was, after all, the governor from 2002 to 2006. Romney, however, was much better known in Massachusetts than Baker is today. On top of that, Martha Coakley is well known to voters and she is doing very poorly. Indeed, if the GOP wins this election, it will be more a case that Coakley and the Democrats lost than that the GOP won.
There are still six weeks until election day, so anything can still happen. Nevertheless, there must be a lot of panic setting in over at Coakley headquarters. Remember, in 2010 Coakley lost to Scott Brown for the senate. Will she also lose now for governor? That would make her the first Democrat in modern times to lose for both positions.
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