Two Really Surprising Polls

We still have more than a month until election day, but there were two polls released recently that make me wonder if we will see some major surprises in November.  First of all, the latest poll in the race for governor in New York showed that the lead of Andrew Cuomo over his Republican opponent Rob Astorino is shrinking and that Cuomo is now below 50% support.  Don't get me wrong; Cuomo is still way ahead in this race and will almost certainly win.  It is just that having a Democrat below 50% at this point in the race (especially since he used to be over 60%) is a major indicator of trouble ahead for the Democrats.  We may see some upsets in congressional races in the Empire state come November.

The second poll is in the race for governor of Massachusetts.  The poll by the Boston Globe found the Republican Baker leading the Democrat Coakley by 2% at 40-38.  I realize that Martha Coakley is the same inept campaigner who lost to Scott Brown in the special election in 2010, so she may be up to her old tricks.  Nevertheless, for the Republican to be ahead at this point and for the Democrat to be below 40% in the poll is stunning.  These are both races for governor which tend to focus much more on local issues rather than national ones.  If voters in the bluest of blue states are abandoning their faith in the Democrats, this is big news.  (Or, it might just be two bad polls.)