In the last ten days, ISIS has made a major mistake: it has forced Turkey into the war against it. For all the years that the Syrian Civil War has gone on, Turkey has stayed on the sidelines. Nearly all of the foreign jihadi fighters who flocked to Syria to join ISIS came across the border from Turkey. Other supplies also came to ISIS from Turkey. The Turks refused to allow American planes to use the huge American air force base at Incirlik in southern Turkey for bombing raids on ISIS positions. Even when the Kurdish forces were besieged by ISIS fighters in Kobane (which is on the border with Turkey), the Turks stayed out and even hindered the resupply to the Kurds. Turkey was neutral, but that neutrality helped ISIS to a great extent. Then things changed. First, the Kurds drove the ISIS fighters away from the Turkish border. The Kurds now control more than half of the Syrian border with Turkey. This cut off the flow of fighters and material to ISIS from Turkey. Second, ISIS decided to take on the Turks. Just a few days ago, there was a suicide bomber who killed over 30 in a Turkish town about ten miles inside the country north of Kobane. The attack seems to have been perpetrated by ISIS. Third, earlier this week, Turkish military forces were attacked in another province of southern Turkey by ISIS fighters. At least one Turkish soldier was killed.
These attacks by ISIS on Turkey's people and military are a major mistake. Turkey has an enormous army which could crush ISIS if it had to. While the Turks are unlikely to undertake a full campaign against ISIS, the attacks have driven the Turkish government towards the ranks of those fighting ISIS. Two days ago, the Turks silently approved the use of the American air base at Incirlik for bombing against ISIS. Let's stop there. This is a major event in the fight with ISIS. Until now, air strikes in Syria have mostly come from carriers in the Persian Gulf. That means that to get to the ISIS capital of Raqqa, planes from these carriers, American planes had to first fly nearly 1000 miles and then had to return 1000 miles after the strike. Planes leaving from Incirlik have to fly less than 300 miles to get to Raqqa. By avoiding that extra 1400 miles of flying, the planes will be able to stay on target much longer and to carry additional ordinance as well. Further, nearly all the flight to hit ISIS can be over safe Turkish territory, thereby reducing the chance of any ground fire bringing down a plane.
Turkey has also made clear that it will be joining the ranks of those fighting ISIS. It remains to be seen just what the Turks actually do, but no matter what level of effort they put forth, it will be a blow to ISIS.
It would be nice to think that the USA somehow finally got the Turks into the battle. The truth, however, is that ISIS did this to itself. Maybe now there will be a second force beside the Kurds that will actually confront ISIS on the ground.
The involvement of the Turkish military is not without problems, of course. Should the Turkish army move into Syria to pursue the ISIS forces, the Assad regime will almost certainly protest. Iran, the main protector of Assad, will also be upset. Nevertheless, the ability of either Assad or the Iranians to project sufficient power to halt an advance by the Turks is minimal. Depending on how things break, we could end up with a big chunk of Syria occupied by the Turks, and event which would deny the Iranians access to their clients of Assad and Hezbollah. Now that would be something to celebrate.
These attacks by ISIS on Turkey's people and military are a major mistake. Turkey has an enormous army which could crush ISIS if it had to. While the Turks are unlikely to undertake a full campaign against ISIS, the attacks have driven the Turkish government towards the ranks of those fighting ISIS. Two days ago, the Turks silently approved the use of the American air base at Incirlik for bombing against ISIS. Let's stop there. This is a major event in the fight with ISIS. Until now, air strikes in Syria have mostly come from carriers in the Persian Gulf. That means that to get to the ISIS capital of Raqqa, planes from these carriers, American planes had to first fly nearly 1000 miles and then had to return 1000 miles after the strike. Planes leaving from Incirlik have to fly less than 300 miles to get to Raqqa. By avoiding that extra 1400 miles of flying, the planes will be able to stay on target much longer and to carry additional ordinance as well. Further, nearly all the flight to hit ISIS can be over safe Turkish territory, thereby reducing the chance of any ground fire bringing down a plane.
Turkey has also made clear that it will be joining the ranks of those fighting ISIS. It remains to be seen just what the Turks actually do, but no matter what level of effort they put forth, it will be a blow to ISIS.
It would be nice to think that the USA somehow finally got the Turks into the battle. The truth, however, is that ISIS did this to itself. Maybe now there will be a second force beside the Kurds that will actually confront ISIS on the ground.
The involvement of the Turkish military is not without problems, of course. Should the Turkish army move into Syria to pursue the ISIS forces, the Assad regime will almost certainly protest. Iran, the main protector of Assad, will also be upset. Nevertheless, the ability of either Assad or the Iranians to project sufficient power to halt an advance by the Turks is minimal. Depending on how things break, we could end up with a big chunk of Syria occupied by the Turks, and event which would deny the Iranians access to their clients of Assad and Hezbollah. Now that would be something to celebrate.
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