So here's the riddle: What do you call sixteen American airstrikes on ISIS in Raqqa, Syria? If this were a joke, the punch line would be "a good start". Sadly, however, this is not a joke. The actual answer is "not much at all."
I can hear some of you getting angry already. How could I call this biggest strike of the campaign against ISIS to date "not much at all"? Doesn't it show American resolve to degrade and destroy ISIS? Isn't this attack something that will encourage others in the region to join America in the fight against ISIS? Sadly, the answer here is a resounding NO.
First, let's consider the "massive" attack. Sixteen planes flew to attack Raqqa, the ISIS capital in Syria. We do not know how many of these planes actually dropped their bombs. In the past, only about one quarter of American "strikes" ended with bombs actually being dropped. But let's assume that all of these planes actually dropped their bombs, so we have 16. While these strikes will hurt ISIS, they won't do all that much damage. Sixteen planes dropping bombs is still just sixteen planes dropping bombs. There is no reason to assume that US planes will be back to Raqqa tomorrow or the next day or the day after that. If recent history is any guide, American planes will next hit Raqqa some time in three months or so.
By way of contrast, when America fought the Iraqis in the Gulf War, the average number of strikes per day was more than 1000. That's right, for every plane that hit Raqqa, the US launched 66 against Iraq during the Gulf War, and that was every single day, not just once in a while. America has been fighting ISIS for a year now. Without any doubt, the USA could easily have launched truly massive raids against ISIS by now, but president Obama has not permitted this to happen.
Second, let's consider how this affects the other countries in the region. The king of Jordan is not blind. Neither is the king of Saudi Arabia. The Iranian mullahs are able to perceive the reality on the ground as well. So to are the leaders of Israel, Syria, Turkey and other countries in the neighborhood. They understand full well that America is still engaged in a photo op war, a battle with ISIS that is carried out for the benefit of the American media rather than in an attempt to actually defeat ISIS. These countries understand that if the USA under Obama can claim to be trying to destroy ISIS while actually doing only enough to let the news reports sound like some effort is being made, then promises from Obama to them cannot be the basis for any action. Obama reveals himself to these countries, both our friends and our enemies, as a blowhard, a liar who won't even tell his own people the truth. It is a dangerous situation.
I can hear some of you getting angry already. How could I call this biggest strike of the campaign against ISIS to date "not much at all"? Doesn't it show American resolve to degrade and destroy ISIS? Isn't this attack something that will encourage others in the region to join America in the fight against ISIS? Sadly, the answer here is a resounding NO.
First, let's consider the "massive" attack. Sixteen planes flew to attack Raqqa, the ISIS capital in Syria. We do not know how many of these planes actually dropped their bombs. In the past, only about one quarter of American "strikes" ended with bombs actually being dropped. But let's assume that all of these planes actually dropped their bombs, so we have 16. While these strikes will hurt ISIS, they won't do all that much damage. Sixteen planes dropping bombs is still just sixteen planes dropping bombs. There is no reason to assume that US planes will be back to Raqqa tomorrow or the next day or the day after that. If recent history is any guide, American planes will next hit Raqqa some time in three months or so.
By way of contrast, when America fought the Iraqis in the Gulf War, the average number of strikes per day was more than 1000. That's right, for every plane that hit Raqqa, the US launched 66 against Iraq during the Gulf War, and that was every single day, not just once in a while. America has been fighting ISIS for a year now. Without any doubt, the USA could easily have launched truly massive raids against ISIS by now, but president Obama has not permitted this to happen.
Second, let's consider how this affects the other countries in the region. The king of Jordan is not blind. Neither is the king of Saudi Arabia. The Iranian mullahs are able to perceive the reality on the ground as well. So to are the leaders of Israel, Syria, Turkey and other countries in the neighborhood. They understand full well that America is still engaged in a photo op war, a battle with ISIS that is carried out for the benefit of the American media rather than in an attempt to actually defeat ISIS. These countries understand that if the USA under Obama can claim to be trying to destroy ISIS while actually doing only enough to let the news reports sound like some effort is being made, then promises from Obama to them cannot be the basis for any action. Obama reveals himself to these countries, both our friends and our enemies, as a blowhard, a liar who won't even tell his own people the truth. It is a dangerous situation.
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