Search This Blog

Thursday, July 30, 2015

The Non-Growth "Recovery"

The American economy sucks.  I know it.  You know it.  Even the fools in Washington know it.  I'm not sure, but it could be that by now the media knows it too.  Today we got more proof (as if we needed it).

The government reported that in the second quarter of 2015, the gross domestic product grew at a rate of 2.3%.  That's an abysmal rate of growth.  Remember, during the first quarter the economy did not grow at all because, we were told, of the bad winter.  That's right, the same people who tell us how global warming will mean winter is a thing of the past now blame slow economic growth on the extra cold winter.  But I digress.  The economic pundits in the media told us that in the second quarter the rate of growth would soar because activity that got delayed by the weather in the first quarter would be pushed to the second quarter.  Instead of robust growth, we got 2.3%.  At that rate, growth for the first half of the year is now at roughly 1.4%.

The lack of growth is perhaps the biggest long term problem facing the USA.  If the economy does not grow, there is no way for people to leave poverty.  If the economy does not grow, there is no way for the government to pay for all its programs or ever to reduce the debt.  If the economy does not grow, there is no way to pay for a robust national defense.  We have to grow the economy.

That is why the 2016 election is so important.  The policies of under Obama have all been ones that slows growth rather than increasing it.  Obama raised taxes.  Some would argue incorrectly that higher taxes do not slow growth, but no serious economist would argue that raising taxes increases growth.  Obama imposed all sorts of new regulations on banks, utilities, energy producers, and essentially every part of the economy.  Each one of those regulations cost billions and billions of dollars that otherwise might have been used to grow those businesses.  Again, no serious economist would ever argue that adding regulations of this sort cause increased growth in the economy.  Obama refused to allow projects that might have helped create jobs and economic growth; think of the Keystone XL pipeline or all manner of exploration for oil or minerals on federal or off shore land.  An extension of Obama's policies will mean more years of slow growth or no growth.

Right now, most of the focus in the 2016 race is on polls, on who said what about illegal immigrants, on who used private email illegally, on who sold influence in exchange for contributions, and the like.  It is not that these subjects are unimportant.  The truly important stuff, however, centers on the economy and on promoting growth.  Each candidate needs to be clear as to what he or she would do to promote growth.  Then America should choose.  And we must choose growth.

Refocusing the 2016 race won't be easy.  The media won't like it.  Most of the reporters don't understand the economy and how it works.  There are no ways to portray economic policies as scandals.  Too bad.  It has to be done.

 

No comments: