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Sunday, July 5, 2015

The True Meaning of the Greek Vote

Greece voted NO, emphatically NO to the terms of a deal previously offered by the EU for a bailout of the country.  The Greeks want no more austerity.  Instead, they decided to play chicken with the rest of the EU by refusing to take the steps needed to repay all those debts run up by Greek governments of the past.

This is democracy in action.  The Greek people said NO, so now they should get everything that comes with that no vote.  Simply put, the EU ought to expel Greece from the European Union.  The Greeks can return to using drachmas or whatever currency they want.  They can default on their debt and either renounce it entirely or set up a new payment schedule or reduced principal amount.  In fact, Greece as a sovereign nation can do whatever it wants.  The Greeks should, however, expect that their products will be hit with tariffs, and that their overseas assets will be subject to lawsuits.  Oh, and Greece can expect that there will be no more foreign investment into Greece for the next 5 to 10 years at least.  That will probably mean a continuing depression in Greece, massive inflation and terrible problems for the populace, but that is what they chose.

In a strange way, the Grexit (as the Greek departure from the Eurozone is called) should work wonders for keeping the rest of the EU together.  Given what is likely to happen in Greece over the next five years, no other country will want to follow the Greeks down the road to ruin.

It is true that there will be some large losses for non-Greek banks, companies and countries due to the Greek departure from the EU.  Let's put that loss into the poper context, however.  The total amount of Greek debt is about one-tenth as much as the decline in value on the Shanghai stock exchange of just the last three weeks.  Put another way, the likely total loss from the mess in Greece is only about twice what one company, BP, lost as a result of the environmental disaster in the Gulf a few years back.  For the Greeks it's a big deal; for the world, not so much.  I hope the leaders of the EU countries let the Greeks leave, NOW!!!




 

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