There are new polls out for four important states: Pennsylvania, Florida, Ohio and North Carolina. Each is among the ten states with the most electoral votes. Each is a swing state although Pennsylvania has stayed with the Democrats for the last twenty years (PA was, however, one of the closest states in 2012). In each state, the polling data from Quinnipiac and PPP shows that Trump leads among Republicans and Clinton among Democrats. The really interesting information, however, comes in the head to head and qualities matchups. The single most striking result is that in each state roughly two thirds of all voters do NOT consider Hillary honest and trustworthy. What began as a problem for Hillary has changed into a disaster if these numbers are even close to being correct. By margin of roughly 60 to 40%, the same voters think that Hillary does NOT care about the needs of people like them. Overall, they dislike Hillary by roughly 55% to 45%.
In each state, there are also head to head matchups that were done. Both Marco Rubio and Jeb Bush beat Hillary in each of the four states, and Rubio's lead is outside the margin of error. In fact, Hillary does not break 40% support in the race against Rubio in the PA, OH, and FL polls, and she is stuck at 41% in North Carolina. Given the terrible favorability numbers etc., it is hard to see how Hillary could grow her support very much. That bodes very bad for Hillary in the general election.
Now I know that the election is fifteen months away, so these numbers can and will change before then. In politics, however, the hardest number for a candidate to change is "honest and trustworthy". Once people stop believing what the candidate says, they tend to tune him or her out. That is particularly true for someone like Hillary who is well known already.
Trump also has low numbers for honesty and caring about the needs of people like the average voter, but his figures are much more fluid since he is such a new face on the scene. It will be difficult for him to overcome the honesty problem, but it is not impossible.
The candidate who shines as the most electable with the highest favorability numbers is Marco Rubio. Ben Carson also does well in North Carolina, but he was not the subject of individual polling in the other three states.
In each state, there are also head to head matchups that were done. Both Marco Rubio and Jeb Bush beat Hillary in each of the four states, and Rubio's lead is outside the margin of error. In fact, Hillary does not break 40% support in the race against Rubio in the PA, OH, and FL polls, and she is stuck at 41% in North Carolina. Given the terrible favorability numbers etc., it is hard to see how Hillary could grow her support very much. That bodes very bad for Hillary in the general election.
Now I know that the election is fifteen months away, so these numbers can and will change before then. In politics, however, the hardest number for a candidate to change is "honest and trustworthy". Once people stop believing what the candidate says, they tend to tune him or her out. That is particularly true for someone like Hillary who is well known already.
Trump also has low numbers for honesty and caring about the needs of people like the average voter, but his figures are much more fluid since he is such a new face on the scene. It will be difficult for him to overcome the honesty problem, but it is not impossible.
The candidate who shines as the most electable with the highest favorability numbers is Marco Rubio. Ben Carson also does well in North Carolina, but he was not the subject of individual polling in the other three states.
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