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Wednesday, August 12, 2015

Some Real Information on the Results of the Debate

Rasmussen released a national poll on the GOP race which was taken on Sunday and Monday, in other words after the debate and after the Trump/Megyn Kelly dustup.  Since Rasmussen did a poll ten days prior to the debate using the same methodology, a comparison of the two provides a picture of what has happened during that time.  Now, before I discuss the results, let me add that these are just two polls; I know that.  I don't need email telling me that I shouldn't rely on these polls or telling me that the Rasmussen polls are "fixed".  Polls change.  We all know that.  Nevertheless, the polls are indicators of trends.  If a candidates numbers are rising or falling tells us a lot about the short term reactions of the public.  With that said, here are the differences for the candidates who moved by more than 2 percentage points in the polls:

Carly Fiorina +8  (from 1 to 9 percent)
Marco Rubio +5  (from 5 to 10 percent)
Ben Carson +3 (from 5 to 8 percent)
Mike Huckabee -4 (from 7 to 3 percent)
Scott Walker -5 (from 14 to 9 percent)
Donald Trump -9 (from 26 to 17 percent)

Trump is still in first place in the poll, but his momentum is in the wrong direction.  This does not mean that Trump's candidacy is falling apart; it only means that his big rise has stopped.  Losing a third of one's support in ten days is just not a good sign, though.



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