Since Friday, there have been many barrages of missiles launched from Gaza into Israel. The number of rockets fired at Israel has getting close to 1000 and the attack continues. Almost all of the missiles have been shot down, but a few have gotten through. In the last day, three Israelis have died and more have been wounded. Missiles hit the cancer ward of a hospital in Ashkelon, a car on a highway nearby, a few homes and other sites. These are random launches; the terrorists are spraying the region with missiles not targeting military or even industrial sites.
The Israeli response has been rapid and intense as well. The air force has hit something like 250 targets connected with Islamic Jihad or Hamas. The Israelis are also trying to target the leadership of Islamic Jihad. They announced that they had taken out the main coordinator between Islamic Jihad and Iran, for example.
This continuing battle leads to two important questions:
1. Why did this happen now?
2. Where is the confrontation going?
First, let's consider the timing. It's rather strange if one only looks at the surface. For the last many months, Egypt has been mediating an effort to reduce tensions between Gaza and Israel. When the rocket barrage started, representatives of Hamas and Islamic Jihad were actually in Cairo finalizing that agreement. So with peace -- or at least something closer to peace -- on the way, why did the Islamic Jihad forces launch such a major attack. The answer is IRAN. Islamic Jihad is not really a movement of the Palestinians in Gaza. Rather, it is an organization that was formed, funded and directed by the Iranians. It's a way for Iran to attack Israel without having to either use Iranians or risk getting the blame in the eyes of the world. The last thing that Iran wants is for there to be a peace agreement on the Gaza border. If the Israelis do not need to focus on Gaza as much as previously, they will have more time to oppose the Iranian moves in Syria designed to take total control of the Assad regime. A flare up on the Gaza border will distract Israel from watching what Iran is doing in Syria, or at least that is the theory. So Iran had the Islamic Jihad launch the missile barrage in order to prevent any agreement between Gaza and Israel.
And where is this going? That's a tough question. As Israeli casualties mount, it's harder and harder for the border to calm down without some major Israeli moves. The Israeli army could easily retake Gaza. Occupation of Gaza would bring all sorts of other problems, but it would end the missile threat from that region. Most likely, however, occupation of Gaza would lead to Iran ordering its other proxy terrorist group Hezbollah to start launching missiles into Israel from Lebanon. That would open another front in an expanding war. It would also lead to Israel taking control of southern Lebanon. Then there would be the usual sort of outcry in the UN if Israel is winning. It might be the usual cycle all over again.
On the other hand, the normal cycle might get broken this time. If the missiles manage to get through the Israeli Iron Dome system -- which could clearly happen -- the level of Israeli response might be raised. For decades now, the Arabs (and now the left) have denounced Israel for "war crimes" and "oppression" of Palestinians, even though it is the Palestinians, not the Israelis, who randomly attack civilian targets. Just look at the current fighting. The Palestinians are hitting hospitals with missiles. That's clearly not a military target. On the other hand, Israel has operated to try to minimize civilian casualties. If the Israelis were really trying to wipe out the Palestinians, they would be attacking on a much less targeted way. Were Israel, for example, to use the methods deployed by Iran, Hezbollah and Assad in Syria, the resistance in Gaza could be erased in a few days. The cost, however, would be tens of thousands of casualties like those suffered by the Syrian civilians in places like Aleppo and Homs. At some point, Israel's refusal to sink to the level of its adversaries may change if the terrorists continues to deploy missile barrages that randomly target innocent civilians.
It may be helpful to think of this in terms of World War II. When that war began, the British and the Germans could have attacked each other's cities, but they didn't. After almost a year, the Germans launched air attacks on British cities. The RAF responded with attacks on German cities. From there, massive bombing of major cities was the common tactic from both sides. Casualties were huge.
The Middle East is now on the edge of another major conflict. Hopefully, things will calm down. Iran has to stop stoking the fire of battle. Some how, the Iranians have to understand that by continuing this course of action they will suffer some rather unpleasant consequences.
The Israeli response has been rapid and intense as well. The air force has hit something like 250 targets connected with Islamic Jihad or Hamas. The Israelis are also trying to target the leadership of Islamic Jihad. They announced that they had taken out the main coordinator between Islamic Jihad and Iran, for example.
This continuing battle leads to two important questions:
1. Why did this happen now?
2. Where is the confrontation going?
First, let's consider the timing. It's rather strange if one only looks at the surface. For the last many months, Egypt has been mediating an effort to reduce tensions between Gaza and Israel. When the rocket barrage started, representatives of Hamas and Islamic Jihad were actually in Cairo finalizing that agreement. So with peace -- or at least something closer to peace -- on the way, why did the Islamic Jihad forces launch such a major attack. The answer is IRAN. Islamic Jihad is not really a movement of the Palestinians in Gaza. Rather, it is an organization that was formed, funded and directed by the Iranians. It's a way for Iran to attack Israel without having to either use Iranians or risk getting the blame in the eyes of the world. The last thing that Iran wants is for there to be a peace agreement on the Gaza border. If the Israelis do not need to focus on Gaza as much as previously, they will have more time to oppose the Iranian moves in Syria designed to take total control of the Assad regime. A flare up on the Gaza border will distract Israel from watching what Iran is doing in Syria, or at least that is the theory. So Iran had the Islamic Jihad launch the missile barrage in order to prevent any agreement between Gaza and Israel.
And where is this going? That's a tough question. As Israeli casualties mount, it's harder and harder for the border to calm down without some major Israeli moves. The Israeli army could easily retake Gaza. Occupation of Gaza would bring all sorts of other problems, but it would end the missile threat from that region. Most likely, however, occupation of Gaza would lead to Iran ordering its other proxy terrorist group Hezbollah to start launching missiles into Israel from Lebanon. That would open another front in an expanding war. It would also lead to Israel taking control of southern Lebanon. Then there would be the usual sort of outcry in the UN if Israel is winning. It might be the usual cycle all over again.
On the other hand, the normal cycle might get broken this time. If the missiles manage to get through the Israeli Iron Dome system -- which could clearly happen -- the level of Israeli response might be raised. For decades now, the Arabs (and now the left) have denounced Israel for "war crimes" and "oppression" of Palestinians, even though it is the Palestinians, not the Israelis, who randomly attack civilian targets. Just look at the current fighting. The Palestinians are hitting hospitals with missiles. That's clearly not a military target. On the other hand, Israel has operated to try to minimize civilian casualties. If the Israelis were really trying to wipe out the Palestinians, they would be attacking on a much less targeted way. Were Israel, for example, to use the methods deployed by Iran, Hezbollah and Assad in Syria, the resistance in Gaza could be erased in a few days. The cost, however, would be tens of thousands of casualties like those suffered by the Syrian civilians in places like Aleppo and Homs. At some point, Israel's refusal to sink to the level of its adversaries may change if the terrorists continues to deploy missile barrages that randomly target innocent civilians.
It may be helpful to think of this in terms of World War II. When that war began, the British and the Germans could have attacked each other's cities, but they didn't. After almost a year, the Germans launched air attacks on British cities. The RAF responded with attacks on German cities. From there, massive bombing of major cities was the common tactic from both sides. Casualties were huge.
The Middle East is now on the edge of another major conflict. Hopefully, things will calm down. Iran has to stop stoking the fire of battle. Some how, the Iranians have to understand that by continuing this course of action they will suffer some rather unpleasant consequences.
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