Anyone who follows polls for the 2014 election knows by now that Illinois governor Quinn is seriously behind in his run for re-election. Given the almost non-stop corruption in the Illinois state government and the poor economy in that state, it is not a surprise. What is truly surprising, however, is that Illinois Democrat senator Dick Durbin is also doing poorly in his race. Now don't get me wrong; Durbin is still polling ahead of his Republican opponent. In the latest poll, Durbin is leading by 7%, but that is after some shady moves by the Democrats to try to cement Durbin's re-election. The Illinois panel that governs elections recently ruled that the Libertarian candidate could be on the state ballot for senate despite the failure of the Libertarians to clearly meet all the requirements for such a position. The election panel is controlled by the Democrats, so, in effect, they waived some of the rules to allow a Libertarian to run and to take votes from the Republican candidate. In the latest poll, the Libertarian got 4% of the vote; had that gone instead to the GOP, Durbin would only be up by 3%. By election day, however, the Libertarian vote will likely sag to 1 or 2%, with the rest of the current 4% going mostly to the Republican.
Through the Spring, there were only sporadic polls of the senate race. They all showed Durbin with a lead in the area of 15%. The election gurus all rated this as a sure Democrat win. The polls this Summer, however, have shown the race narrowing. Having Durbin with a 7% lead and a total below 50% puts the incumbent into a surprisingly weak position. The polls may be a fluke, but we will have to wait and see more results before we know for sure. One thing is certain, however, Durbin has a real race on his hands.
It would be nice to think of the senate without Durbin in it. About the only good thing one could say of Durbin is that he is smarter than some of the other Democrats, but that is really not saying much.
Through the Spring, there were only sporadic polls of the senate race. They all showed Durbin with a lead in the area of 15%. The election gurus all rated this as a sure Democrat win. The polls this Summer, however, have shown the race narrowing. Having Durbin with a 7% lead and a total below 50% puts the incumbent into a surprisingly weak position. The polls may be a fluke, but we will have to wait and see more results before we know for sure. One thing is certain, however, Durbin has a real race on his hands.
It would be nice to think of the senate without Durbin in it. About the only good thing one could say of Durbin is that he is smarter than some of the other Democrats, but that is really not saying much.
No comments:
Post a Comment