Back in the quaint old days when we did not have non-stop campaigning and fund raising across the country, Labor Day used to be the start of the political season. Sure, there were bits and pieces of politics before Labor Day (like primaries, etc.), but most people paid no attention to the candidates before the last two months. Some of that remains, but the process has changed. From my perspective, it seems that some people have ratcheted up the level of attention much higher all the time while others have become so disinterested in the political process that they may not even tune in on election day to see who won. Nevertheless, let's use the old paradigm to see where the national race stand as the campaign "begins".
First, let's look at the House. Barring a political earthquake, there will be a Republican house majority in the next Congress. Based on current polling, the GOP should gain about 5-10 seats on election day. If there is a Republican wave that appears as we get closer to November, the gain could be as large as 15, but that is about as high as it is likely to go. What is most salient about the House races is how very few of them are competitive. Right now, only about 5% of all the races could be considered toss-ups.
Second, we need to review the Senate races. Here, it looks more and more like the Republicans are going to take control. According to the latest polling, the most likely outcome after the election is for there to be 52 GOP senators and 48 Democrats (or independents who vote with the Democrats). That could swing the other way if president Obama were to recover some measure of approval for his performance, but the best the Democrats could do would likely be just a loss of four seats to the Republicans. If a wave develops, the GOP could bring its total up to 55 seats in total. Three states have essentially already flipped from Democrat to GOP: Montana (where the Democrat just dropped out after a scandal to be replaced by a relative unknown with views much to the left of the average Montanan), West Virginia (which has become a strongly Republican state) and South Dakota. The Republicans lead in Arkansas, North Carolina, Louisiana, and Iowa and trail the Democrats in Alaska, Colorado, Michigan and New Hampshire, but all these races are still quite close. The Republican seats of Kentucky and Georgia are targeted by the Democrats, but seem more and more unlikely to flip. Finally, there are also Minnesota, Oregon, Virginia, Illinois and New Jersey which could flip to the GOP were there to be a wave, but which are very unlikely to do so.
Third, come the governors' races. The big news here are the states of Pennsylvania and Illinois. PA is almost certain to go from a Republican to a Democrat while the opposite is true in Illinois. The big question in both places is the likelihood that the state legislatures will get carried along by the top of the ticket. There is no public polling on that issue, but my estimate is that the Democrats will take back the Pennsylvania legislature and will hold on in Illinois. In other states, the Republicans are likely to take the seat from the Democrats in Connecticut, Arkansas and Hawaii while the Democrats should pick up seats in Kansas and Maine. The races in Connecticut, Hawaii and Maine are extremely close, however. Wisconsin, where Scott Walker is seeking re-election is also quite close and could go either way. Florida, Michigan and Georgia are also close, but the Republican candidate is moving ahead in each of them.
Overall, it seems likely that in November, the GOP will gain in each of the House, Senate and governors' races. Of course, events could easily move the needle pretty far one way or the other.
First, let's look at the House. Barring a political earthquake, there will be a Republican house majority in the next Congress. Based on current polling, the GOP should gain about 5-10 seats on election day. If there is a Republican wave that appears as we get closer to November, the gain could be as large as 15, but that is about as high as it is likely to go. What is most salient about the House races is how very few of them are competitive. Right now, only about 5% of all the races could be considered toss-ups.
Second, we need to review the Senate races. Here, it looks more and more like the Republicans are going to take control. According to the latest polling, the most likely outcome after the election is for there to be 52 GOP senators and 48 Democrats (or independents who vote with the Democrats). That could swing the other way if president Obama were to recover some measure of approval for his performance, but the best the Democrats could do would likely be just a loss of four seats to the Republicans. If a wave develops, the GOP could bring its total up to 55 seats in total. Three states have essentially already flipped from Democrat to GOP: Montana (where the Democrat just dropped out after a scandal to be replaced by a relative unknown with views much to the left of the average Montanan), West Virginia (which has become a strongly Republican state) and South Dakota. The Republicans lead in Arkansas, North Carolina, Louisiana, and Iowa and trail the Democrats in Alaska, Colorado, Michigan and New Hampshire, but all these races are still quite close. The Republican seats of Kentucky and Georgia are targeted by the Democrats, but seem more and more unlikely to flip. Finally, there are also Minnesota, Oregon, Virginia, Illinois and New Jersey which could flip to the GOP were there to be a wave, but which are very unlikely to do so.
Third, come the governors' races. The big news here are the states of Pennsylvania and Illinois. PA is almost certain to go from a Republican to a Democrat while the opposite is true in Illinois. The big question in both places is the likelihood that the state legislatures will get carried along by the top of the ticket. There is no public polling on that issue, but my estimate is that the Democrats will take back the Pennsylvania legislature and will hold on in Illinois. In other states, the Republicans are likely to take the seat from the Democrats in Connecticut, Arkansas and Hawaii while the Democrats should pick up seats in Kansas and Maine. The races in Connecticut, Hawaii and Maine are extremely close, however. Wisconsin, where Scott Walker is seeking re-election is also quite close and could go either way. Florida, Michigan and Georgia are also close, but the Republican candidate is moving ahead in each of them.
Overall, it seems likely that in November, the GOP will gain in each of the House, Senate and governors' races. Of course, events could easily move the needle pretty far one way or the other.
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