Imagine a presidential race with three candidates: Donald Trump, Bernie Sanders and Michael Bloomberg. It would be two billionaires and a socialist. This is the scenario making the rounds today in the media on the basis of a supposed plan by the former New York mayor to run as an independent. What would it mean?
Here's the first question: could Bloomberg win? According to reports, he's talking about spending a billion dollars of his own money for the race. That could buy a lot of advertising, but would that be enough? I doubt it. Let's consider which states Bloomberg could actually win. There are about 200 electoral votes in states that have consistently voted Republican. Would Bloomberg carry any of them? Obviously, Bloomberg has been a Republican and a Democrat at different times in his career. then he became an independent. Will states like those in the South and the Plains vote for a relatively liberal former New York mayor. No. Indeed, in those red states, Bloomberg would mostly take votes from the Democrat, whether that Democrat is Hillary or Bernie.
What about the string of blue states that consistently vote for the Democrat. Could Bloomberg win those? He might win some of them. Indeed, that would probably depend on which candidate the Democrats nominate. If Sanders wins, Bloomberg could provide a place for Democrats who just don't want to vote for a socialist but also don't want to vote Republican. Also, all the states near New York could see many people vote for Bloomberg on the strength of his record as mayor.
And what about the so called battleground states? Could Bloomberg take any of Florida, North Carolina, Virginia, Ohio, Iowa, Colorado, New Hampshire, Pennsylvania, or Nevada? It sure doesn't seem likely, but who knows for sure?
My guess is that were Bloomberg to run, he would take more votes from the Democrat than from the Republican. Even if he were unable to win, he could do well enough to assure a Republican victory. Indeed, were Bloomberg to do really well, all that would likely happen is for the race to be decided by the House of Representatives when no one got a majority in the Electoral College. Barring some extraordinary shift in the House, that would mean a Republican president.
Here's the first question: could Bloomberg win? According to reports, he's talking about spending a billion dollars of his own money for the race. That could buy a lot of advertising, but would that be enough? I doubt it. Let's consider which states Bloomberg could actually win. There are about 200 electoral votes in states that have consistently voted Republican. Would Bloomberg carry any of them? Obviously, Bloomberg has been a Republican and a Democrat at different times in his career. then he became an independent. Will states like those in the South and the Plains vote for a relatively liberal former New York mayor. No. Indeed, in those red states, Bloomberg would mostly take votes from the Democrat, whether that Democrat is Hillary or Bernie.
What about the string of blue states that consistently vote for the Democrat. Could Bloomberg win those? He might win some of them. Indeed, that would probably depend on which candidate the Democrats nominate. If Sanders wins, Bloomberg could provide a place for Democrats who just don't want to vote for a socialist but also don't want to vote Republican. Also, all the states near New York could see many people vote for Bloomberg on the strength of his record as mayor.
And what about the so called battleground states? Could Bloomberg take any of Florida, North Carolina, Virginia, Ohio, Iowa, Colorado, New Hampshire, Pennsylvania, or Nevada? It sure doesn't seem likely, but who knows for sure?
My guess is that were Bloomberg to run, he would take more votes from the Democrat than from the Republican. Even if he were unable to win, he could do well enough to assure a Republican victory. Indeed, were Bloomberg to do really well, all that would likely happen is for the race to be decided by the House of Representatives when no one got a majority in the Electoral College. Barring some extraordinary shift in the House, that would mean a Republican president.
No comments:
Post a Comment