It's rather surprising. The Iowa caucus is less than two weeks away, and we really do not have much of an idea who will win in either party. Okay, we know who will surely lose. For the Democrats, O'Malley has no chance. For the Republicans, there is a long list of candidates with no chance. Nevertheless, the idea that both races are still clearly up for grabs at this point seems strange given that the campaign has gone on for the majority of the last year.
For the Democrats, the aftermath of the caucus seems clear. If Hillary wins, we will get told how Sanders was just too far out for the Iowa Democrats, how Hillary's "experience" won the day for her, and how Hillary has the nomination locked up. If Sanders wins, we will be told how Sanders surged at just the right time, how Sanders' voters were more committed than the Clinton folks, and how Hillary has the nomination locked up. That's right, no matter who wins, the message will still be that Hillary has it locked up. Despite that message, however, Hillary does not have it locked up. Think about it. A few weeks ago, we were told that Hillary would clearly win in Iowa. She may still win, but if not, the predictions that she has locked up the nomination which come from the same people who told us she would win in Iowa are suspect at best.
For the Republicans, the aftermath is much less clear. If Ted Cruz wins, he will get a boost for the later races, but that could easily dissipate if he does poorly in New Hampshire. If Donald Trump wins, he will move on strong to NH, but we will still need to see what happens as the also-rans drop out. If for some reason Rubio pulls out a surprise win in Iowa, his campaign will get a major boost which could propel him to victory in New Hampshire and thereafter.
It's going to be interesting, that's for sure.
For the Democrats, the aftermath of the caucus seems clear. If Hillary wins, we will get told how Sanders was just too far out for the Iowa Democrats, how Hillary's "experience" won the day for her, and how Hillary has the nomination locked up. If Sanders wins, we will be told how Sanders surged at just the right time, how Sanders' voters were more committed than the Clinton folks, and how Hillary has the nomination locked up. That's right, no matter who wins, the message will still be that Hillary has it locked up. Despite that message, however, Hillary does not have it locked up. Think about it. A few weeks ago, we were told that Hillary would clearly win in Iowa. She may still win, but if not, the predictions that she has locked up the nomination which come from the same people who told us she would win in Iowa are suspect at best.
For the Republicans, the aftermath is much less clear. If Ted Cruz wins, he will get a boost for the later races, but that could easily dissipate if he does poorly in New Hampshire. If Donald Trump wins, he will move on strong to NH, but we will still need to see what happens as the also-rans drop out. If for some reason Rubio pulls out a surprise win in Iowa, his campaign will get a major boost which could propel him to victory in New Hampshire and thereafter.
It's going to be interesting, that's for sure.
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