Last night, it seems, Donald Trump lost a big bet. He pulled out of the GOP debate and then he and his staff told the world that given his absence, no one would watch. Trump's campaign manager predicted that the debate would get only a million viewers and that the Trump event on CNN and MSNBC would outdraw the debate. Not only did that not happen, but it wasn't even close.
First of all, the debate last night outdrew the previous GOP debate (which included the Donald.) When the final ratings numbers are in and the figures for those who watched on line are compiled, it looks as if roughly 15 million people watched the event. By comparison, the Trump event shown on CNN and MSNBC got only a tiny audience.
Second, Trump's pull out from the debate also seems to have hurt him with the voters of Iowa. A good indicator is the focus group done by Frank Luntz after the debate. Luntz had about 30 Iowa Republican voters, and about two thirds of them were annoyed or upset that Trump was a no show. That may not stop die hard Trump supporters from supporting the Donald at the caucuses, but for the 40% of Iowa Republicans who tell pollsters that they have yet to make a final decision on their candidate, the anger against Trump for not showing up should be significant. Further, even those who were leaning towards caucusing for Trump may decide now not to show up at the caucus much like Trump did not show at the debate. This could well be decisive and end Trump's chance for victory in Iowa.
Third, with the generally accepted view that Marco Rubio outshone the rest of the field at last night's debate, the Florida senator may pick up substantial support for the caucus. It may not be enough to win, but if the results on Monday at the caucuses show Cruz, Trump and Rubio bunched at the top, the big headline of the night will be the big Rubio surge that pushed him to (or near) the top. That will give Rubio the chance to dominate the headlines in New Hampshire for a few days while pushing Trump out of the limelight. Such prominence for Rubio in the last week prior to the New Hampshire primary may convince wavering New Hampshire voters who would otherwise have selected Kasich or Christie or Bush to back Rubio instead as the "winner" from that group. Similarly, a Trump loss in Iowa would take away from him his mantra about being a winner.
It's easy in politics to spin things into much bigger stories than they truly are. Trump's mistake on the debate, however, may haunt him for a long time. Indeed, it may be the first crack in Trump's wall (whether or not Mexico pays for that wall.)
First of all, the debate last night outdrew the previous GOP debate (which included the Donald.) When the final ratings numbers are in and the figures for those who watched on line are compiled, it looks as if roughly 15 million people watched the event. By comparison, the Trump event shown on CNN and MSNBC got only a tiny audience.
Second, Trump's pull out from the debate also seems to have hurt him with the voters of Iowa. A good indicator is the focus group done by Frank Luntz after the debate. Luntz had about 30 Iowa Republican voters, and about two thirds of them were annoyed or upset that Trump was a no show. That may not stop die hard Trump supporters from supporting the Donald at the caucuses, but for the 40% of Iowa Republicans who tell pollsters that they have yet to make a final decision on their candidate, the anger against Trump for not showing up should be significant. Further, even those who were leaning towards caucusing for Trump may decide now not to show up at the caucus much like Trump did not show at the debate. This could well be decisive and end Trump's chance for victory in Iowa.
Third, with the generally accepted view that Marco Rubio outshone the rest of the field at last night's debate, the Florida senator may pick up substantial support for the caucus. It may not be enough to win, but if the results on Monday at the caucuses show Cruz, Trump and Rubio bunched at the top, the big headline of the night will be the big Rubio surge that pushed him to (or near) the top. That will give Rubio the chance to dominate the headlines in New Hampshire for a few days while pushing Trump out of the limelight. Such prominence for Rubio in the last week prior to the New Hampshire primary may convince wavering New Hampshire voters who would otherwise have selected Kasich or Christie or Bush to back Rubio instead as the "winner" from that group. Similarly, a Trump loss in Iowa would take away from him his mantra about being a winner.
It's easy in politics to spin things into much bigger stories than they truly are. Trump's mistake on the debate, however, may haunt him for a long time. Indeed, it may be the first crack in Trump's wall (whether or not Mexico pays for that wall.)
No comments:
Post a Comment