Are we about to see president Obama issue a pardon to Hillary Clinton? The portents for such an action are there. First, Hillary is now saying nice things about Obama on a non-stop basis. In Clinton world, that indicates that Hillary wants or needs something from Obama. Second, the media is filled with leaks about how General Petreus is about to be "demoted" by the Pentagon for his actions regarding classified materials, and action that would strip the general of his pension and rank in addition to the criminal penalties he already suffered. Why is this surfacing now? It has been more than a year since Petreus pled out his case. Even the Pentagon acts more quickly than that. The likely reason is that the chatter gives Obama a reason to pardon Petreus. Picture the statement from the White House: Obama tells the nation that he cannot sit by while people who gave their lives to public service are brought down for inconsequential violations of the secrecy laws. Then he pardons Petreus and Clinton. In one stroke of his pen, Obama takes the issue out of the campaign and rescues Hillary from a likely indictment.
So will we see such a pardon? Obama knows what happened to president Ford when he pardoned Richard Nixon. Most likely, Ford would have beaten Jimmy Carter for re-election if he had never issued that pardon. But Obama has no more races to run. Is he likely to put success for the Democrats over his legacy? And would he do it for Hillary Clinton, someone for whom Obama clearly has no love? I think it depends on how Obama sees the political reality of the next year. If a pardon would prevent a president Trump or Cruz or even Rubio, Obama would do it. At heart, Obama is probably the most partisan president of the last 40 years and one of the most partisan ever. The only thing that ever seems to rouse him from torpor is a chance to bash Republicans. On the other hand, if Obama thinks that Joe Biden will be able to get the nomination with Hillary out of the way due to an indictment, he may stand back, wait for the indictment and then pardon Hillary in exchange for her withdrawal from the race.
So will we see such a pardon? Obama knows what happened to president Ford when he pardoned Richard Nixon. Most likely, Ford would have beaten Jimmy Carter for re-election if he had never issued that pardon. But Obama has no more races to run. Is he likely to put success for the Democrats over his legacy? And would he do it for Hillary Clinton, someone for whom Obama clearly has no love? I think it depends on how Obama sees the political reality of the next year. If a pardon would prevent a president Trump or Cruz or even Rubio, Obama would do it. At heart, Obama is probably the most partisan president of the last 40 years and one of the most partisan ever. The only thing that ever seems to rouse him from torpor is a chance to bash Republicans. On the other hand, if Obama thinks that Joe Biden will be able to get the nomination with Hillary out of the way due to an indictment, he may stand back, wait for the indictment and then pardon Hillary in exchange for her withdrawal from the race.
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