Will Bernie Win In Iowa?

We're close enough to the Iowa caucus to start paying attention to what the polls are telling us.  Hillary Clinton is either in big trouble or will coast to an easy win according to the polls.  In the last two weeks the Iowa polls have either shown Hillary way ahead by more than 20% over Sanders or they have shown Sanders with a small lead over Clinton.  Obviously, one of those two sets of polls is way off.  My bet is that Sanders has pulled into a slight lead.  But there's more that's working in Bernie's favor:  the late deciders.  Anyone in Iowa who hasn't already decided to vote for Hillary is unlikely to do so.  After all, Hillary is better known than any candidate, even Donald Trump.  If a voter couldn't choose her last week, then there is something about her (her dishonesty, her sense of entitlement, her nastiness, you name it) that is not going away this week and it is a deal breaker for that voter.  All the polls have somewhere between 6 and 10% of the voters who have not yet decided.  Most of them are going to a candidate other than Hillary, and that isn't O'Malley.

Does it matter if Bernie wins in Iowa?  Sure.  Couple that with the likely win by Bernie in New Hampshire and there will be a sea change in the Democrat race.  Even when the race heads to the Southern states, Hillary will be wounded in a major way.