Relations have never been good between Iran (the center of Shia Islam) and Saudi Arabia (the center of Sunni Islam). In the last year or so, there have been violent, if indirect, confrontations between the two nations. In Yemen, the Saudis have been bombing the Houthi rebels (who are Shiites supported by Iran) in favor of the Sunni government forces. In Syria, the Saudis have been helping the Sunni rebels fight against the Shiite Assad forces and their Iranian and Hezbollah allies. The Saudis have been whispered to have conducted negotiations with Israel to help the Israelis take out the Iranian nuclear installations (although in fairness, the is no confirmation of this.)
In the last week, however, things have gotten much worse. The Saudis executed a group of criminals including a prominent Shiite cleric who was convicted of inciting a revolt against the government. In response to that execution, a "spontaneous" mob broke into the Saudi embassy in Teheran and burned it to the ground. (We all remember the government sponsored "spontaneous" mob that took over the American embassy in that city in 1978.) Today, the Saudis broke diplomatic relations with Iran. To put it mildly, things are very tense.
So we need to ask the most important question: what happens if Iran and Saudi Arabia go to war? This would not just be another conflict between two unimportant countries. Saudi Arabia and the other stated on the Persian Gulf supply a large chunk of the world's oil supply. We that cut off, the price of oil could easily jump back from the current price in the high thirties to one over one hundred dollars per barrel. Imagine what that shock would do to the world economy. And that would be the case if the fighting were short lived. A long war in the region could cause much greater economic harm.
Then there is the issue of the religious nature of such a war. There is no way that Sunni nations would want to see Mecca or Medina (the two most important sites in Islam) under the control of a Shiite nation. The Shiite government of Iraq, however, would likely side with the Iranians were the fighting to spread. We could see a religiously motivated regional war.
Without question, we know how president Obama and the Obamacrats will react to the threat of this war. They will do essentially nothing. If actual fighting were to break out, there would eventually be some sort of inconclusive negotiations sponsored by the Obamacrats. That would, of course, be short sighted since the national interests of the USA are very much on the side of the Saudis (who are basically our friend) rather than on the side of the Iranians (who remain an implacable foe.)
Let's hope none of this happens.
In the last week, however, things have gotten much worse. The Saudis executed a group of criminals including a prominent Shiite cleric who was convicted of inciting a revolt against the government. In response to that execution, a "spontaneous" mob broke into the Saudi embassy in Teheran and burned it to the ground. (We all remember the government sponsored "spontaneous" mob that took over the American embassy in that city in 1978.) Today, the Saudis broke diplomatic relations with Iran. To put it mildly, things are very tense.
So we need to ask the most important question: what happens if Iran and Saudi Arabia go to war? This would not just be another conflict between two unimportant countries. Saudi Arabia and the other stated on the Persian Gulf supply a large chunk of the world's oil supply. We that cut off, the price of oil could easily jump back from the current price in the high thirties to one over one hundred dollars per barrel. Imagine what that shock would do to the world economy. And that would be the case if the fighting were short lived. A long war in the region could cause much greater economic harm.
Then there is the issue of the religious nature of such a war. There is no way that Sunni nations would want to see Mecca or Medina (the two most important sites in Islam) under the control of a Shiite nation. The Shiite government of Iraq, however, would likely side with the Iranians were the fighting to spread. We could see a religiously motivated regional war.
Without question, we know how president Obama and the Obamacrats will react to the threat of this war. They will do essentially nothing. If actual fighting were to break out, there would eventually be some sort of inconclusive negotiations sponsored by the Obamacrats. That would, of course, be short sighted since the national interests of the USA are very much on the side of the Saudis (who are basically our friend) rather than on the side of the Iranians (who remain an implacable foe.)
Let's hope none of this happens.
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