After the revelation of the latest batch of Hillary Clinton emails by the State Department, the likelihood of an indictment of Hillary Clinton has gone up substantially. There is now written evidence that appears to show Hillary directing her staff to remove classified markings from documents and then to send them by nonsecure means. It is hard to see how the FBI can come to any conclusion other than to recommend that Mrs. Clinton be indicted. Of course, the final decision is up to Attorney General Loretta Lynch (which means that it's really up to president Obama). The heavy weight of political considerations still make it a bit more likely than not that Hillary will escape without an indictment, but it is almost an even money bet at this point.
So let's consider what will happen if Hillary Clinton does get indicted. What will that mean for the Democrats, the country and the 2016 elections?
Let's start with the obvious: if an indictment is coming, Hillary may make a deal to withdraw from the presidential race on some pretext (like a medical excuse) in order to avoid being charged. Given the turmoil that her indictment would bring, Obama and Lynch may decide to accept such a deal. Indeed, it may be Obama's goal since he really does not like the Clintons. Even if there is no deal and Hillary gets indicted, she would almost certainly withdraw from the race. Remember, the statute under which she would be indicted includes the penalty of being barred from holding federal office. Were she convicted, she would be removed from the presidency even had she won (which is unlikely). So the inevitable conclusion is that an indictment means the end of Hillary's candidacy.
If Hillary is out, who gets the Democrat nomination? Many would say that Bernie Sanders would get the nod. I seriously doubt that, however. No matter what, the Democrats would be unlikely to nominate a guy who has such a little chance for victory. A Sanders nomination would be good for only one Democrat: Larry David who plays Sanders sometimes on Saturday Night Live. Sanders, however, would have great difficulty bringing out minority voters to the polls and without them, the Democrats cannot win. All sorts of Democrats up and down the ticket would suffer in 2016 were he to be the candidate.
So without Sanders, who gets the nomination and how does he or she manage it? The name that pops into mind immediately is Joe Biden. He decided not to run a few months back, but if Hillary goes down, Biden can come forward to "save" the party. It may be impossible for Biden to comply with many of the state deadlines to run delegates for the convention, but if things happen in the next month, Biden could still get sufficient numbers to win at the convention. If Biden still doesn't run, the Democrats are left with loser retreads like John Kerry and Al Gore or a new face like Elizabeth Warren. Kerry comes with the baggage of the current Obama foreign policy. A huge majority of the country disapproves of that and it would be a millstone around Kerry's neck. Gore is unknown by a large chunk of the American people and his signature issue is global warming. He too is a guaranteed loser. So does that leave Warren? I doubt it. The Massachusetts senator already decided once not to run. I doubt that she would think that she had much of a chance if she got in at the very end of the contest. More likely, she would stay on the sidelines and wait for 2020 for her shot at the brass ring.
The truth is that in the event of an indictment of Hillary, the most likely beneficiary is the Republican nominee and, of course, the American people.
So let's consider what will happen if Hillary Clinton does get indicted. What will that mean for the Democrats, the country and the 2016 elections?
Let's start with the obvious: if an indictment is coming, Hillary may make a deal to withdraw from the presidential race on some pretext (like a medical excuse) in order to avoid being charged. Given the turmoil that her indictment would bring, Obama and Lynch may decide to accept such a deal. Indeed, it may be Obama's goal since he really does not like the Clintons. Even if there is no deal and Hillary gets indicted, she would almost certainly withdraw from the race. Remember, the statute under which she would be indicted includes the penalty of being barred from holding federal office. Were she convicted, she would be removed from the presidency even had she won (which is unlikely). So the inevitable conclusion is that an indictment means the end of Hillary's candidacy.
If Hillary is out, who gets the Democrat nomination? Many would say that Bernie Sanders would get the nod. I seriously doubt that, however. No matter what, the Democrats would be unlikely to nominate a guy who has such a little chance for victory. A Sanders nomination would be good for only one Democrat: Larry David who plays Sanders sometimes on Saturday Night Live. Sanders, however, would have great difficulty bringing out minority voters to the polls and without them, the Democrats cannot win. All sorts of Democrats up and down the ticket would suffer in 2016 were he to be the candidate.
So without Sanders, who gets the nomination and how does he or she manage it? The name that pops into mind immediately is Joe Biden. He decided not to run a few months back, but if Hillary goes down, Biden can come forward to "save" the party. It may be impossible for Biden to comply with many of the state deadlines to run delegates for the convention, but if things happen in the next month, Biden could still get sufficient numbers to win at the convention. If Biden still doesn't run, the Democrats are left with loser retreads like John Kerry and Al Gore or a new face like Elizabeth Warren. Kerry comes with the baggage of the current Obama foreign policy. A huge majority of the country disapproves of that and it would be a millstone around Kerry's neck. Gore is unknown by a large chunk of the American people and his signature issue is global warming. He too is a guaranteed loser. So does that leave Warren? I doubt it. The Massachusetts senator already decided once not to run. I doubt that she would think that she had much of a chance if she got in at the very end of the contest. More likely, she would stay on the sidelines and wait for 2020 for her shot at the brass ring.
The truth is that in the event of an indictment of Hillary, the most likely beneficiary is the Republican nominee and, of course, the American people.
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