There is a disconnect in the media and with the public with regard to the upcoming Iowa caucus and New Hampshire primary. According to the most recent set of polls, Ted Cruz and Hillary Clinton are leading in Iowa, while Donald Trump and Bernie Sanders are leading in New Hampshire. The media, however, devotes nearly all of its coverage to Trump and Clinton. As a result, when pollsters ask people nationwide who will win in Iowa and New Hampshire, the public says that it will be Trump and Clinton. That sets up both events to deliver some major surprises. Consider:
In Iowa, Trump could easily get crushed. He does not have the organization on the ground that Cruz and some of the other GOP candidates have. Trump is much more dependent on his voters deciding on their own to attend the caucuses. Further, the groups that support Trump to the greatest extent in the polling are also the groups that have the worst turnout records in past Iowa caucuses. What sort of media storm will result if Trump comes in third behind Cruz and someone like Marco Rubio?
The same can be said of Clinton in New Hampshire. Hillary, at least, will have the advantage of a likely win in Iowa to give her a boost in New Hampshire, but it still looks like Sanders is going to win this contest. If Bernie wins big, will we see stories about how Clinton's candidacy has been badly damaged? Will the media play down the Sanders win?
Then there's Nevada and South Carolina. Polling there is much less extensive than in the first two states. Nevertheless, these states can offer big surprises. In 2012, no one would have predicted four weeks before Iowa, that Newt Gingrich would win a landslide in South Carolina, but he did.
The most likely outcome of all of this, in my opinion, is that there will be some rather large surprises. It should be interesting.
In Iowa, Trump could easily get crushed. He does not have the organization on the ground that Cruz and some of the other GOP candidates have. Trump is much more dependent on his voters deciding on their own to attend the caucuses. Further, the groups that support Trump to the greatest extent in the polling are also the groups that have the worst turnout records in past Iowa caucuses. What sort of media storm will result if Trump comes in third behind Cruz and someone like Marco Rubio?
The same can be said of Clinton in New Hampshire. Hillary, at least, will have the advantage of a likely win in Iowa to give her a boost in New Hampshire, but it still looks like Sanders is going to win this contest. If Bernie wins big, will we see stories about how Clinton's candidacy has been badly damaged? Will the media play down the Sanders win?
Then there's Nevada and South Carolina. Polling there is much less extensive than in the first two states. Nevertheless, these states can offer big surprises. In 2012, no one would have predicted four weeks before Iowa, that Newt Gingrich would win a landslide in South Carolina, but he did.
The most likely outcome of all of this, in my opinion, is that there will be some rather large surprises. It should be interesting.
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