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Monday, August 25, 2014

A Bit Of Theater in Syria

In the days since the beheading of American journalist James Foley, we have learned that all is not as it appeared.  We have also witnessed some additional theater of the absurd that seeks to deceive America and its government.

Let's start with the Foley murder.  Everyone knows that he was beheaded by ISIS, right?  But were you aware that two years ago, Foley was captured not by ISIS or its allies, but by the forces of Bashir al Assad, the supposed president of Syria?  This has now been confirmed by multiple sources.  So Assad's army captured Foley and kept him in custody.  Nevertheless, somehow Foley ended up in the clutches of ISIS.  How and why did that happen?

The answer may be much more complicated than one would think.  Remember, Assad has two major allies:  Iran and Hezbollah.  Neither of them is very friendly with the USA.  Assad himself was completely at loggerheads with America when Foley was captured.  Nevertheless, a few months later came the deal in which Obama agreed to let Assad stay in power untouched by US military might in exchange for Assad "declaring" some of his chemical weapons and then turning them over for destruction.  At that point, holding Foley became a liability for Assad since it might undermine the deal with Obama that essentially guaranteed Assad victory in the civil war.  Assad needed to get rid of Foley but in a way that would do him the most good.

At that point, Assad most likely turned Foley over to ISIS.  It is important to keep in mind that although ISIS is Sunni and Assad is Shiite, they both look at their main enemy as the more moderate segment of the Sunni rebels.  The Syrian National Council, which consists of the moderate Syrian Sunni rebels (who Obama calls the vetted opposition) is considered a much bigger threat by both Assad and ISIS than they consider each other.  At this moment, the city of Aleppo is controlled by The Syrian National Council, but it is under attack from the east by ISIS and from the south by Assad's forces.  ISIS and Assad are working together to try to eradicate the Syrian National Council before that group can actually receive American aid. 

If Assad turned Foley over to ISIS, it solved his problem in a way most helpful to Assad.  Foley was not released.  ISIS got a bargaining chip with the USA.  If Foley died, then ISIS gets blamed.  Although ISIS and Assad are working together against the Syrian National Council, Assad realized that down the road he will have to turn his forces against ISIS, so it was helpful to guarantee that the USA would be an enemy of ISIS.

It may seem farfetched to think that this is actually what happened, but remember, this is the Middle East.  Just yesterday we learned that another American journalist had been released by terrorists in Syria.  This time the journalist was released by the al Nusra front rather than by ISIS.  Al Nusra is the local Syrian branch of al Qaeda.  That's right, al Qaeda released and American journalist who it had been holding captive.  It's wonderful that the man has been released, but think for a moment why al Qaeda let him go.  Is this the new al Qaeda?  Are we to believe that the group that pulled off 9-11 is now changing its behavior?  Are they suddenly becoming civilized?  Hardly!  Al Qaeda is trying to make itself (at least in Syria) look reasonable to the USA.  It wants to make sure that if Obama actually sends American forces to deal with ISIS, those forces do not go after al Nusra/al Qaeda as well.  The Syrian al Qaeda is not part of the Syrian National Council; it is caught in the middle in the fight between the Syrian National Council and ISIS.  Al Qaeda does not want to see ISIS win, but it also does not want to see Assad or the Syrian National Council win.  For al Qaeda to survive in Syria, however, it has to stay away from American forces.  The local al Nusra front is just not strong enough to survive any major move against it by the USA.  So now we get al Qaeda trying to differentiate itself from ISIS by releasing its journalist prisoner.  I guess that Obama is supposed to believe that al Qaeda is suddenly a humanitarian organization (like Nancy Pelosi thinks Hamas is).

The truth is that al Qaeda is still al Qaeda, a group that would gladly destroy America if it could.  Nevertheless, ISIS still must be destroyed for the sake of the world and the USA.  President Obama has to launch a major air campaign against the ISIS forces in both Iraq and Syria.  My guess is that Assad would easily agree to such a campaign so that there would be no opposition from the Syrian air force.  Nevertheless, with or without agreement from Damascus, ISIS has to be smashed.




 

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