It is interesting to take a look at the current polling in the governor"s race in Illinois and Pennsylvania. In the latest poll in Illinois, the Republican challenger is running 13% ahead of incumbent Democrat governor Quinn. In Pennsylvania, the Democrat challenger is running even farther ahead of incumbent Republican Corbett. To see two big state incumbents who seem likely to get crushed in their battles for re-election is not very common. Usually, no matter what, the advantages of incumbency keep the election close, even if the challenger ultimately wins. A good example of this is the governor's race in New York where governor Cuomo, a Democrat, is under ongoing investigation by the U.S. Attorney in Manhattan (also a Democrat) for alleged wrongdoing while in office. That investigation has resulted in pubic warnings to Cuomo from the Justice Department, something that would normally be unthinkable coming from the Democrats in Washington to their fellow Democrat in an election year. Despite all this mess, Cuomo has kept a big (albeit slightly reduced) lead in the polls.
So why are these incumbents in such trouble? In Pennsylvania, it seems to be a problem personal to governor Corbett. Congressional seats in PA, for example, show no signs of flipping from one party to another. All but two of these seats are already locked up for one party or the other. Corbett is not struggling because of inherent Republican problems with the electorate. In Illinois, party identification seems a bit more important. There are two of the state's 18 Congressional seats that are currently toss-ups meaning they might switch parties. These two seats, however, are one Republican and one Democrat. A strong win for Republicans at the top of the ticket could swing these seats both to the Republicans.
There are also upsets likely in smaller states as well. Right here in Connecticut, governor Malloy is in serious trouble. He trails the likely Republican candidate Tom Foley in the recent polls. Most people in Connecticut are paying little, if any, attention to the elections at the moment. After the Republican primary (tomorrow), this may change, but it is doubtful.
So why are these incumbents in such trouble? In Pennsylvania, it seems to be a problem personal to governor Corbett. Congressional seats in PA, for example, show no signs of flipping from one party to another. All but two of these seats are already locked up for one party or the other. Corbett is not struggling because of inherent Republican problems with the electorate. In Illinois, party identification seems a bit more important. There are two of the state's 18 Congressional seats that are currently toss-ups meaning they might switch parties. These two seats, however, are one Republican and one Democrat. A strong win for Republicans at the top of the ticket could swing these seats both to the Republicans.
There are also upsets likely in smaller states as well. Right here in Connecticut, governor Malloy is in serious trouble. He trails the likely Republican candidate Tom Foley in the recent polls. Most people in Connecticut are paying little, if any, attention to the elections at the moment. After the Republican primary (tomorrow), this may change, but it is doubtful.
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