Today's announced agreement ending the fighting in Gaza is typical of the Middle East. Hamas basically capitulated and agreed to the Egyptian cease fire proposal that has been on the table and consistently rejected by Hamas for many weeks. Then Hamas held a victory celebration attended by thousands of Palestinians in Gaza.
So what cause Hamas to give in and accept a deal that it had rejected again and again? The answer is threefold:
1. Hamas and Gaza were getting blasted and there was no big international swell of support to force Israel to make peace. In fact, the actions by another terrorist group ISIS were so brutal that they grabbed the headlines away from Hamas and became the focus of the world media. Since Hamas had no chance to achieve any military objectives against Israel, the loss of any political/media victory was a crushing blow.
2. Hamas was using up its stockpile of missiles with little hope of resupply. At the moment, the estimate is that Hamas is down to around 20% of the number of missiles it had when the fighting began. Also, while there may be some remaining tunnels under Hamas control, more than 90% of the network was destroyed by the Israelis during the ground fighting. The blockade around Gaza has become so tight that there is no way to get new supplies of missiles into the area.
3. Israel changed tactics and began to target all of the Hamas leadership. In the last few days, six high ranking Hamas officials were killed by Israeli strikes. This told the remaining Hamas leadership two things: they were not safe and also Israel had informants giving real time targeting information to the planes, drones and artillery used by the Israelis. Also, Israel began hitting military targets even if they were in high rise buildings. There result was the destruction of a number of apartment buildings. (There was no loss of life, since the Israelis gave residents a warning before striking the building.)
And what did the Israelis get? First, Israel got an end to the fighting and, perhaps, an end to the Hamas threat. After all, despite the "victory" celebration by Hamas, there is no question here who actually won the battle. The only concessions that Hamas got in exchange for a cease fire are and extension of the fishing limits imposed on fisherman from Gaza and the reopening of the border crossings into Gaza. Those crossings, however, will still see goods carefully inspected by Israeli forces before allowing anything into Gaza. At the Egyptian border, the crossing will be manned by troops loyal to the Palestinian Authority rather than Hamas. There is also no indication that Egypt will let weapons pass through its territory and into Gaza. In short, the blockade remainis in effect in the ways that are important to Israel. There will still be no way to resupply the Hamas military.
Again, since this is the Middle East, many members of the Israeli cabinet are disappointed with the deal and oppose it. They wanted to see Hamas destroyed by the end of the fighting. Israel's Prime Minister, however, was not willing to expend the lives of the soldiers who would have to be sacrificed to achieve that goal.
Egypt also gets some major benefits from this deal. Egypt keeps the Hamas fighters out of the Sinai peninsula. This protects Egypt's bases in that area and reduces the threat from the Moslem Brotherhood.
All in all, it is a good deal. It is also worth noting that it is a deal achieved not only without the participation of the USA but in a framework that specifically excluded any American involvement and rejected the outline of a deal suggested by John Kerry. It seems as if the negotiators in Cairo must have been saying "Barack who?" in speaking about our president.
So what cause Hamas to give in and accept a deal that it had rejected again and again? The answer is threefold:
1. Hamas and Gaza were getting blasted and there was no big international swell of support to force Israel to make peace. In fact, the actions by another terrorist group ISIS were so brutal that they grabbed the headlines away from Hamas and became the focus of the world media. Since Hamas had no chance to achieve any military objectives against Israel, the loss of any political/media victory was a crushing blow.
2. Hamas was using up its stockpile of missiles with little hope of resupply. At the moment, the estimate is that Hamas is down to around 20% of the number of missiles it had when the fighting began. Also, while there may be some remaining tunnels under Hamas control, more than 90% of the network was destroyed by the Israelis during the ground fighting. The blockade around Gaza has become so tight that there is no way to get new supplies of missiles into the area.
3. Israel changed tactics and began to target all of the Hamas leadership. In the last few days, six high ranking Hamas officials were killed by Israeli strikes. This told the remaining Hamas leadership two things: they were not safe and also Israel had informants giving real time targeting information to the planes, drones and artillery used by the Israelis. Also, Israel began hitting military targets even if they were in high rise buildings. There result was the destruction of a number of apartment buildings. (There was no loss of life, since the Israelis gave residents a warning before striking the building.)
And what did the Israelis get? First, Israel got an end to the fighting and, perhaps, an end to the Hamas threat. After all, despite the "victory" celebration by Hamas, there is no question here who actually won the battle. The only concessions that Hamas got in exchange for a cease fire are and extension of the fishing limits imposed on fisherman from Gaza and the reopening of the border crossings into Gaza. Those crossings, however, will still see goods carefully inspected by Israeli forces before allowing anything into Gaza. At the Egyptian border, the crossing will be manned by troops loyal to the Palestinian Authority rather than Hamas. There is also no indication that Egypt will let weapons pass through its territory and into Gaza. In short, the blockade remainis in effect in the ways that are important to Israel. There will still be no way to resupply the Hamas military.
Again, since this is the Middle East, many members of the Israeli cabinet are disappointed with the deal and oppose it. They wanted to see Hamas destroyed by the end of the fighting. Israel's Prime Minister, however, was not willing to expend the lives of the soldiers who would have to be sacrificed to achieve that goal.
Egypt also gets some major benefits from this deal. Egypt keeps the Hamas fighters out of the Sinai peninsula. This protects Egypt's bases in that area and reduces the threat from the Moslem Brotherhood.
All in all, it is a good deal. It is also worth noting that it is a deal achieved not only without the participation of the USA but in a framework that specifically excluded any American involvement and rejected the outline of a deal suggested by John Kerry. It seems as if the negotiators in Cairo must have been saying "Barack who?" in speaking about our president.
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