Have you read any news reports or analysis that talks about the Republican hold on Congress being due to gerrymandering? If you follow congressional elections, the answer is almost certainly in the affirmative. You know the argument: in 2010, the GOP took control of state legislatures and used those new majorities to draw congressional districts and state legislative districts that favored the Republicans at the expense of the Democrats. In every discussion of the House races by the liberal media, there is always a few paragraphs about the insidious nature of that supposed gerrymandering. The problems, however, is that this argument is totally wrong.
Let's look at what actually happened. From World War II through 2000, the Democrats had control of the state legislative chambers that controlled the shape of a majority of congressional districts. That meant that for the seven decades prior to 2010, it was the Democrats who were in charge of drawing congressional districts. The Democrats used that control to make certain that the districts they drew favored the Democrats whenever possible. That is why the Democrats held the majority in congress from 1950 to 1994 even though during that same period Republicans won seven out of eleven presidential elections. In two of those Republican victories, the GOP presidential candidate carried 49 out of 50 states, but the Democrats still hung on to control of the House. It was a clear case of gerrymandering by the Democrats. Then, in 2010, the national revulsion at the first two years of the Obama administration and the passage of Obamacare by an ultra-partisan Democrat Congress led to huge gains by the GOP that was enough to overcome the normal Democrat gerrymandering. It also gave Republicans, for the first time in three generations, control of more Congressional seats than the Democrats had. In other words, Democrats lost the ability to gerrymander a majority of the seats in the House. Not surprisingly, this change resulted in districts that were much easier for Republicans to win than the old gerrymandered districts the Democrats had drawn. It also horrified the Democrat media when it realized that the old built in advantage for the Democrats was gone. As a result, the Democrats started blaming the new districts on Republican gerrymandering and the liberal media chimed in to join the attack.
There is no question that the current congressional districts are more favorable to the GOP than the old districts that resulted from Democrat gerrymandering. The big problem for the Democrats, however, comes right out of the Voting Rights Act. The VRA requires legislatures to draw what are called "minority majority" districts where possible. These are districts in which a majority of the voters a minorities. From the Democrats' standpoint, however, this law is a disaster. Remember that African Americans vote for the Democrats roughly 90% of the time. In a minority majority district that is 70% African American, that guarantees a Democrat victory for a minority congressman. In the remaining districts of a state, however, it means that there are fewer Democrats since such a large number have been put into the minority majority districts. Look at a state like Pennsylvania where there are more registered Democrats than Republicans but where the state's congressional delegation has more Republicans than Democrats. Blacks make up about 11% of the population of Pennsylvania, but more than half of them live in the city of Philadelphia. The congressional districts that include Philadelphia are represented by Democrats, especially since the remaining residents of that city also are Democrats by a wide margin. The rest of the state, however, has no Democrat majority. In fact, most of the remaining areas of the state have a Republican majority. In 2012, even though president Obama carried Pennsylvania, he lost in 57 counties to Mitt Romney and only carried 9 counties. The Republicans in the rest of the state elected members of their party to congress for the most part.
There clearly are some examples of Republican gerrymandering after 2010, but there are about the same number of districts affected by Democrat gerrymandering in the states that the Dems still control. States like New York, Illinois and California are stacked in favor of the Dems (even though California was supposedly redistricted by a non-partisan commission, which, in actual fact, slanted everything towards the Democrats.)
So next time you see a charge of gerrymandering leveled at the Republicans, remember the reality. For the most part it is just the Democrats assuming that the GOP is doing what the Dems themselves did for decade after decade.
Let's look at what actually happened. From World War II through 2000, the Democrats had control of the state legislative chambers that controlled the shape of a majority of congressional districts. That meant that for the seven decades prior to 2010, it was the Democrats who were in charge of drawing congressional districts. The Democrats used that control to make certain that the districts they drew favored the Democrats whenever possible. That is why the Democrats held the majority in congress from 1950 to 1994 even though during that same period Republicans won seven out of eleven presidential elections. In two of those Republican victories, the GOP presidential candidate carried 49 out of 50 states, but the Democrats still hung on to control of the House. It was a clear case of gerrymandering by the Democrats. Then, in 2010, the national revulsion at the first two years of the Obama administration and the passage of Obamacare by an ultra-partisan Democrat Congress led to huge gains by the GOP that was enough to overcome the normal Democrat gerrymandering. It also gave Republicans, for the first time in three generations, control of more Congressional seats than the Democrats had. In other words, Democrats lost the ability to gerrymander a majority of the seats in the House. Not surprisingly, this change resulted in districts that were much easier for Republicans to win than the old gerrymandered districts the Democrats had drawn. It also horrified the Democrat media when it realized that the old built in advantage for the Democrats was gone. As a result, the Democrats started blaming the new districts on Republican gerrymandering and the liberal media chimed in to join the attack.
There is no question that the current congressional districts are more favorable to the GOP than the old districts that resulted from Democrat gerrymandering. The big problem for the Democrats, however, comes right out of the Voting Rights Act. The VRA requires legislatures to draw what are called "minority majority" districts where possible. These are districts in which a majority of the voters a minorities. From the Democrats' standpoint, however, this law is a disaster. Remember that African Americans vote for the Democrats roughly 90% of the time. In a minority majority district that is 70% African American, that guarantees a Democrat victory for a minority congressman. In the remaining districts of a state, however, it means that there are fewer Democrats since such a large number have been put into the minority majority districts. Look at a state like Pennsylvania where there are more registered Democrats than Republicans but where the state's congressional delegation has more Republicans than Democrats. Blacks make up about 11% of the population of Pennsylvania, but more than half of them live in the city of Philadelphia. The congressional districts that include Philadelphia are represented by Democrats, especially since the remaining residents of that city also are Democrats by a wide margin. The rest of the state, however, has no Democrat majority. In fact, most of the remaining areas of the state have a Republican majority. In 2012, even though president Obama carried Pennsylvania, he lost in 57 counties to Mitt Romney and only carried 9 counties. The Republicans in the rest of the state elected members of their party to congress for the most part.
There clearly are some examples of Republican gerrymandering after 2010, but there are about the same number of districts affected by Democrat gerrymandering in the states that the Dems still control. States like New York, Illinois and California are stacked in favor of the Dems (even though California was supposedly redistricted by a non-partisan commission, which, in actual fact, slanted everything towards the Democrats.)
So next time you see a charge of gerrymandering leveled at the Republicans, remember the reality. For the most part it is just the Democrats assuming that the GOP is doing what the Dems themselves did for decade after decade.
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