This morning, I heard a report in which I was told that in "a very good sign for the economy", weekly claims for unemployment declined by 1000 from last week's number. It was yet another sign that the media do not understand the economy. A change of 1000 in unemployment claims across the country is statistical noise. It means nothing. It does not tell us which way the economy is moving. Indeed, it may indicate nothing more than that this year, those with part time jobs are working a bit longer so that employers do not have to hire full time workers.
If the number of claims had risen by 1000, would the same reporter have called it an ominous sign for the economy? Not likely.
The truth is that today's report, like all of the weekly unemployment claim reports tell us next to nothing about the economy.
If the number of claims had risen by 1000, would the same reporter have called it an ominous sign for the economy? Not likely.
The truth is that today's report, like all of the weekly unemployment claim reports tell us next to nothing about the economy.
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