There have been a few recent polls about the 2014 elections that are worth noting.
In Georgia, the senate race is between the Democrat Nunn (daughter of Sam Nunn) and the winner of the run off primary between Republicans Kingston and Perdue. Kingston is leading in that run off according to the polls, but both Kingston and Perdue are ahead of Nunn by about 6% in the latest numbers. For months, the mainstream media has been telling America that Georgia was a possible Democrat pickup in the senate because the incumbent (Saxby Chambliss) is retiring, there is a hard fought Republican primary, and the Democrat candidate has the benefit of the Nunn family name. Things obviously can change before November, but right now those three things do not appear to be enough to flip the seat from Republican to Democrat. Indeed, after the first round of the primary, the Republicans improved their standing in the polls. If that happens after the run off, the seat will be all but sewed up for the Republicans.
In Iowa, the newly chosen Republican nominee for the senate is leading the Democrat by 48 to 42 in the latest poll. This is a seat that no one in Washington had thought likely to switch to the Republicans as of the start of the year. The Democrats had held the seat for decades. The Democrats had chosen a popular congressman as their candidate. The Republicans had a free for all primary with many candidates swinging away at each other. Then came the video in which the Democrat, Bruce Braley, was seen telling trial lawyers how he was on their side fighting against tort reform. On top of that Braley was also heard denigrating Iowa farmers. After that came Republican Joni Ernst's rise to the top on the strength of some imaginative advertising, a good record, and a boatload of endorsements across the party spectrum. Once again, things may change before November, but right now, this looks like a Republican pickup.
In North Carolina, senator Kay Hagan is running 5% behind her Republican opponent in the latest poll. Even more important, Hagan is down at only 41% support. This level of support for an incumbent in June is nearly always an indication that he or she will lose in November. People already know the incumbent. It is very hard to shift their views in the few months remaining before the election. Of the three states, North Carolina looks the strongest for the GOP.
In Georgia, the senate race is between the Democrat Nunn (daughter of Sam Nunn) and the winner of the run off primary between Republicans Kingston and Perdue. Kingston is leading in that run off according to the polls, but both Kingston and Perdue are ahead of Nunn by about 6% in the latest numbers. For months, the mainstream media has been telling America that Georgia was a possible Democrat pickup in the senate because the incumbent (Saxby Chambliss) is retiring, there is a hard fought Republican primary, and the Democrat candidate has the benefit of the Nunn family name. Things obviously can change before November, but right now those three things do not appear to be enough to flip the seat from Republican to Democrat. Indeed, after the first round of the primary, the Republicans improved their standing in the polls. If that happens after the run off, the seat will be all but sewed up for the Republicans.
In Iowa, the newly chosen Republican nominee for the senate is leading the Democrat by 48 to 42 in the latest poll. This is a seat that no one in Washington had thought likely to switch to the Republicans as of the start of the year. The Democrats had held the seat for decades. The Democrats had chosen a popular congressman as their candidate. The Republicans had a free for all primary with many candidates swinging away at each other. Then came the video in which the Democrat, Bruce Braley, was seen telling trial lawyers how he was on their side fighting against tort reform. On top of that Braley was also heard denigrating Iowa farmers. After that came Republican Joni Ernst's rise to the top on the strength of some imaginative advertising, a good record, and a boatload of endorsements across the party spectrum. Once again, things may change before November, but right now, this looks like a Republican pickup.
In North Carolina, senator Kay Hagan is running 5% behind her Republican opponent in the latest poll. Even more important, Hagan is down at only 41% support. This level of support for an incumbent in June is nearly always an indication that he or she will lose in November. People already know the incumbent. It is very hard to shift their views in the few months remaining before the election. Of the three states, North Carolina looks the strongest for the GOP.
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