The AP has a news story today about the prospects for the 2014 senate election. And what, you may ask, is the big "news" that the story reports? In short, AP tells us that senate candidates from the political party that last won a state "tend to win". In fact, to buttress this great revelation, AP reports that there are "studies" that show this.
Are they kidding? Think about this "news". In a state that Romney and the Republicans won in 2012, the Republican candidate is more likely to win the 2014 senate election. In a state that Obama and the Democrats won in 2012, the Democrat is more likely to win the 2014 senate election. They needed studies to figure this out? Really?
The clear truth about the American electorate is that some states are predominantly Republican while other states are Democrat strongholds. Only about a quarter of the states are considered battlegrounds between the parties. So, when you have a state like Massachusetts where the Democrats are in total control, is it any wonder that the Democrat candidate for the senate tends to win? Or in a state like Oklahoma where the Repubicans have been winning presidential elections for decades, is it any surprise to predict that the GOP candidate for senate will tend to win? Of course not!
The truth is that when a senate candidate from the "out" party wins a state, that is big news. Think Scott Brown in Massachusetts in 2010 and his victory in the special election to replace Ted Kennedy. Of course, by the general election, Brown lost to his Democrat opponent as the normal Democrat tide in Massachusetts reappeared. Similarly, when senator Begich won in Alaska six years ago, his victory for the Democrats was remarkable, but this year, he looks likely to get dumped by a Republican electorate.
I wonder for whom the AP thought it was writing. My guess is that anyone who would think that the story is "news" would not be interested enough to bother reading it.
Are they kidding? Think about this "news". In a state that Romney and the Republicans won in 2012, the Republican candidate is more likely to win the 2014 senate election. In a state that Obama and the Democrats won in 2012, the Democrat is more likely to win the 2014 senate election. They needed studies to figure this out? Really?
The clear truth about the American electorate is that some states are predominantly Republican while other states are Democrat strongholds. Only about a quarter of the states are considered battlegrounds between the parties. So, when you have a state like Massachusetts where the Democrats are in total control, is it any wonder that the Democrat candidate for the senate tends to win? Or in a state like Oklahoma where the Repubicans have been winning presidential elections for decades, is it any surprise to predict that the GOP candidate for senate will tend to win? Of course not!
The truth is that when a senate candidate from the "out" party wins a state, that is big news. Think Scott Brown in Massachusetts in 2010 and his victory in the special election to replace Ted Kennedy. Of course, by the general election, Brown lost to his Democrat opponent as the normal Democrat tide in Massachusetts reappeared. Similarly, when senator Begich won in Alaska six years ago, his victory for the Democrats was remarkable, but this year, he looks likely to get dumped by a Republican electorate.
I wonder for whom the AP thought it was writing. My guess is that anyone who would think that the story is "news" would not be interested enough to bother reading it.
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