For all the hype surrounding the upcoming debate among the top ten polling candidates for the Republican 2016 nomination, don't expect much from it. The debate ought to give each candidate something like 9 or 10 minutes to talk about subjects that the moderators select. The answers, however, cannot be longer than one minute. Just imagine that you had to explain your view of the economy or foreign policy in one minute. You could do it, but it would be a very shallow answer, much closer to slogans than policy. The people running for the office know that. They are ready for that format. They all have their answers for each situation memorized.
So where is the drama? Why is the debate important? First, if one of the candidates makes a major mistake, it will end his or her candidacy. Remember Rick Perry's memory lapse when in 2012 he couldn't remember which three government agencies he wanted to shut down? That was it for him. Something like that could happen with ten candidates in the mix. Second, one of the candidates could attack another one in a way that has impact. That's highly unlikely since such a move is extremely high stakes. An attack that fails and even most that succeed also result in the attacker being labeled "mean", and that is not a very good development for any candidate. Third, and this is the least likely of all, there could be someone who shows insight, knowledge and common sense in his or her responses. Because of the format and the large number of participants, that's doubtful.
Despite all this, I am still going to watch.
So where is the drama? Why is the debate important? First, if one of the candidates makes a major mistake, it will end his or her candidacy. Remember Rick Perry's memory lapse when in 2012 he couldn't remember which three government agencies he wanted to shut down? That was it for him. Something like that could happen with ten candidates in the mix. Second, one of the candidates could attack another one in a way that has impact. That's highly unlikely since such a move is extremely high stakes. An attack that fails and even most that succeed also result in the attacker being labeled "mean", and that is not a very good development for any candidate. Third, and this is the least likely of all, there could be someone who shows insight, knowledge and common sense in his or her responses. Because of the format and the large number of participants, that's doubtful.
Despite all this, I am still going to watch.
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