A Big Step Towards Control

Yesterday saw primary elections in many states.  For the most part, the results were unremarkable.  Oh, there will now need to be a run off in Mississippi among Republicans for the senate seat, but the winner of that vote will get elected in November barring an amazing upset.  So Mississippi is not the big news.  That title goes to the winner of the Republican senate primary in Iowa, Joni Ernst, who got nearly 60% of the vote in a crowded race that was a toss up only two months ago.  This victory by Ernst means that there will be no run off among Republicans in Iowa.  It also means that any rational observer has now to place Iowa among those states where the GOP has a very good chance to pick up a previously Democrat seat in the senate.  First of all, the Democrat candidate wounded himself a few months back when he was recorded telling a group of lawyers that he sided with lawyers fighting tort reform while at the same time denouncing Iowa farmers as not being capable of handling legal matters.  It was a real twofer:  first he sided with lawyers (not a very popular group) and second he disrespected Iowa farmers (not a good move for a senate candidate in Iowa.) Second, Ernst is an energetic, well spoken candidate who will not be subject to the usual Democrat attacks.  It is hard to see the Democrats get far accusing the woman in the race as being part of the so called War on Women.  Ernst has also gone pretty far in defining herself before the opposition has had a chance to strike.

Right now, I would rate the chances of an Ernst victory at roughly 60%.  Obviously, things can and will change before election day.  Nevertheless, last night's results were a big step towards GOP control of the senate come November.