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Wednesday, May 3, 2017

Hopefully It's Psy-Ops

There are two stories today that are troubling.  First, China has been warning its citizens to leave North Korea supposedly because of a possible American attack.  Second, some media is reporting that American special ops forces are training for a mission to take out the North Korean nuclear sites. 

I hope that these are stories planted to give Kim Jung Un second thoughts about continuing with his nuclear/ICBM program.  These stories also might not be true.  If these stories are anything other than hysterical media efforts to sell papers/get website clicks, they are very troubling.

First of all, one has to gauge the reaction of the NK leader.  Will he think he is about to be toppled?  If so, will he launch an attack on the South Koreans to try to prevent that?  Remember, if he gave the order, Kim could start an artillery barrage on the South which would surely kill at least 100,000 and maybe ten times that number by the time it was over. 

If Kim behaves rationally (and that's a big if), will he be deterred by all this?  He hasn't in the past.  If he continues with nuclear tests and missile launches, will the USA be forced to take action that will mean war? 

My prediction is that there will not be war.  Kim knows war means not only his loss of power but almost surely his death and that of his country.  I don't think he will let it get that far.  Surely, our president does not want to see war.  Something will be worked out.

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