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Friday, May 5, 2017

Is This Real and Will It Matter in France?

Emmanuel Macron, the front runner in the French election on Sunday just got terrible news.  After Macron denied rumors that he had used off shore accounts to hide his income and assets from French tax collectors, copies of his secret accounts in the Cayman Islands were put on line.  Macron had consistently said that he did not have accounts in the Bahamas, and it turns out that he was being very Clintonian about it all.  He indeed does not have any accounts in the Bahamas; they are in the Caymans.

As of the start of the day, Macron was running about 20 points ahead of LePen in the polls.  One has to wonder if the news of Macron's alleged lying and dishonesty will throw the election to LePen.  Indeed, one first has to wonder if the documents are even real.  If they are real, then a Macron presidency may be very short lived.  France would likely remove Macron from office were he to be convicted of tax evasion.  There is probably too little time for Macron's support to collapse in favor of LePen or abstention by many voters.  Most likely, this new evidence will not prevent Macron from winning (although you can never be sure) but it will throw his presidency in chaos.


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