Al Hunt writes for Bloomberg News these days. He is what passes as a pundit at that weak news outlet. Today, Hunt's topic is Cleveland, Ohio. His point is that the choice of Cleveland as the site for the 2016 Republican Convention will not flip Ohio to the GOP. To say the least, Hunt has managed to do just that...he has said the absolute least. Is there really anyone out there in America who thinks that just by holding a convention in Cleveland, the GOP has locked up Ohio? I doubt it. Hunt could have written a column about how in the next year time will move forward rather than backward. It would have roughly the same impact.
The real point--which Hunt just ignores--is whether or not having the convention in Cleveland will help the Republicans in Ohio. Can the GOP pick up half a percent or even more when Ohioans vote in 2016 as a result of the convention and all the local media it generates? In a very close election in Ohio, that could make the difference. That sort of margin addition is all that one can expect from a convention in normal circumstances. There is always the counter example of the 1968 Democrat convention in Chicago when rioting killed the chances for the Democrats to carry Illinois (Hubert Humphrey, their candidate, got just over 44% of the vote in a national election that was extremely close and in a state that had voted Democrat in the previous two presidential elections.
The real point--which Hunt just ignores--is whether or not having the convention in Cleveland will help the Republicans in Ohio. Can the GOP pick up half a percent or even more when Ohioans vote in 2016 as a result of the convention and all the local media it generates? In a very close election in Ohio, that could make the difference. That sort of margin addition is all that one can expect from a convention in normal circumstances. There is always the counter example of the 1968 Democrat convention in Chicago when rioting killed the chances for the Democrats to carry Illinois (Hubert Humphrey, their candidate, got just over 44% of the vote in a national election that was extremely close and in a state that had voted Democrat in the previous two presidential elections.
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