There's a disturbing article at The National Interest by Gordon Chang in which he predicts that China is about to start pressuring Taiwan to agree to the unification of the two countries. Chang may be wrong in his conclusion, but he certainly presents a persuasive argument. Beijing has been extremely assertive in foreign affairs for the last few years. The Chinese leadership may view this as the time to finally get Taiwan under their control, something that they have wanted since the late 1940's when Chiang Kai Shek and his Nationalist forces fled the mainland to what was then called Formosa (now Taiwan.)
In the last few years, we have watched president Obama and his administration claim again and again that they have been surprised by events overseas (and at home). The Arab Spring came as a shock. The civil war in Syria was not anticipated. The onslaught of ISIS in Iraq took Obama and his people by surprise. The huge numbers of children coming to the USA alone from Central America was beyond the imagination of Mr. Obama. And let's not forget other surprises like the moves by the Moslem Brotherhood in Egypt to crush all opposition or the Russian annexation of Crimea and support for rebels in Ukraine. It often seems like no one in Washington (or at least at the White House) is paying attention to anything around the world (or at home for that matter).
A Chinese move on Taiwan would have enormous geopolitical significance. If the Chinese can take over Taiwan, then all of the other nations of East Asia would understand, without question, that China was the regional hegemon and that the USA could not act as a counterweight to the power of China. The entire political structure that protects American interests in Asia would come crashing down. Japan and South Korea, along with all the other nations of the region, would become satellites of Beijing.
It is essential that Obama realize that this is an area of major importance to the USA. It is more important that Obama act as if he realizes that fact. We all know that the USA announced a "pivot" to Asia as few years ago. Supposedly, the USA is now focused on East Asia and will assist our allies to maintain strength and security. But those are just words, and we all know the fate of words uttered by Obama: the words are left without actions to back them up until, eventually, reality forces new "words" to be said. That is not good enough for Taiwan. For almost 70 years, America has been allied with Taiwan so as to defend the Taiwanese against attack from China. Would Obama honor that commitment if the Chinese were to threaten an invasion? There should be no question in anyone's mind about that, but the whole world must wonder about the answer these days. It is that very uncertainty that makes possible the thought of a move by the Chinese. Obama needs to make clear the US commitment to Taiwan. No action that might threaten China is needed, but a reaffirmation of the commitment through ACTIONS is necessary.
Let's just hope that we never hear Obama telling the cameras that the Chinese move against Taiwan just took him by surprise.
In the last few years, we have watched president Obama and his administration claim again and again that they have been surprised by events overseas (and at home). The Arab Spring came as a shock. The civil war in Syria was not anticipated. The onslaught of ISIS in Iraq took Obama and his people by surprise. The huge numbers of children coming to the USA alone from Central America was beyond the imagination of Mr. Obama. And let's not forget other surprises like the moves by the Moslem Brotherhood in Egypt to crush all opposition or the Russian annexation of Crimea and support for rebels in Ukraine. It often seems like no one in Washington (or at least at the White House) is paying attention to anything around the world (or at home for that matter).
A Chinese move on Taiwan would have enormous geopolitical significance. If the Chinese can take over Taiwan, then all of the other nations of East Asia would understand, without question, that China was the regional hegemon and that the USA could not act as a counterweight to the power of China. The entire political structure that protects American interests in Asia would come crashing down. Japan and South Korea, along with all the other nations of the region, would become satellites of Beijing.
It is essential that Obama realize that this is an area of major importance to the USA. It is more important that Obama act as if he realizes that fact. We all know that the USA announced a "pivot" to Asia as few years ago. Supposedly, the USA is now focused on East Asia and will assist our allies to maintain strength and security. But those are just words, and we all know the fate of words uttered by Obama: the words are left without actions to back them up until, eventually, reality forces new "words" to be said. That is not good enough for Taiwan. For almost 70 years, America has been allied with Taiwan so as to defend the Taiwanese against attack from China. Would Obama honor that commitment if the Chinese were to threaten an invasion? There should be no question in anyone's mind about that, but the whole world must wonder about the answer these days. It is that very uncertainty that makes possible the thought of a move by the Chinese. Obama needs to make clear the US commitment to Taiwan. No action that might threaten China is needed, but a reaffirmation of the commitment through ACTIONS is necessary.
Let's just hope that we never hear Obama telling the cameras that the Chinese move against Taiwan just took him by surprise.
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