The Gaza Strip is not very large; it is a little more than three times the size of the District of Columbia. Right now, the Israeli troops are taking the neighborhood of Shijaiyah in Gaza City. Shijaiyah has been a center of Hamas activity for a long time. During the recent missile barrage from Gaza, a little over ten percent of all the launches have come from this tiny neighborhood. In just the few hours since the attack began, the Israelis have found about twenty tunnels used for the storage and movement of missiles, other weapons and ammunition in this neighborhood. Despite finding all these weapons and bunkers, the Israelis have also hit a major problem: there are large numbers of casualties from this battle. The majority of the dead are Hamas fighters, but many are civilians and others are Israeli soldiers.
The large increase in casualties resulting from Israel's attack on a neighborhood in Gaza City ought to cause the Israelis to reconsider their strategy moving forward. Many pundits believe that Israel will ultimately be forced to stop fighting and pull back as a result of international pressure arising from the casualties. A smaller group argue that Hamas may be forced to give up the fight as its arsenal is depleted.
In my opinion, both of these arguments are closer to wishful thinking than to reality. Sure, they may come to pass, but it will not happen very soon. So maybe now is the time for some major changes in Israeli strategic thinking.
One of the principal goals of Hamas in the fighting has been to get Egypt to reopen its borders with Gaza. When Morsi and the Moslem Brotherhood were in control of Egypt, the border between Egypt and Gaza was an arms highway used for supplying all sorts of missiles and other weapons to Hamas. When General Sisi took office in Egypt after the ouster of the Moslem Brotherhood, the response from Hamas was to send terrorists to attack police and army facilities in the neighboring areas of Egypt. The result was that President Sisi closed the border with Gaza, ended the flow of arms and even prevented the smuggling of most consumer goods through the tunnels that linked Egypt and Gaza. It was a devastating blow to Hamas. That is why the first demand of Hamas as a condition to any cease fire has been the reopening of the Gaza-Egypt border.
The Egyptians have given no indication that they will reopen the border, but even Egypt will not want to face pressure from the USA and Europe coupled with the inevitable demands from countries like Turkey who are friendly with Hamas. Egypt has its own problems, and it surely does not want to earn the enmity of Arab and Moslem countries in the region. Should Egypt fold on this point, it will present a major dilemma for Israel. After all, what is the point of fighting yet another war with Hamas if the end result is just another lull during which Hamas rearms with more and better missiles?
This may, however, present the Israelis with a strategic opportunity. In the next day or so, the Israeli army could easily take a few square miles of land along the border between Gaza and Egypt. Israel could take over 2% of the Gaza Strip along the Egyptian border and completely seal off any chance that Hamas could rearm through that route. There might be 50,000 or so Gazans living in this area, but many would probably leave if given the choice to stay under Israeli rule or go into the remainder of Gaza. The key, however, is that Hamas would be permanently cut off from any easy flow of arms. It may be that Hamas has been able to build tunnels under the border with Egypt, but those tunnels are not that long. Imagine now that Hamas had to try to build new tunnels for two miles or longer under Israeli occupied territory. How likely is that effort to succeed?
There may be good reasons why Israel would not want to take over this tiny slice of territory. I do not address them. I merely point out that were Israel to occupy the border region between Egypt and Gaza (only on the Gaza side, of course), it would relieve the pressure that might build up on Egypt to reopen the border, and it would also create a major and likely insurmountable problem for the terrorists of Hamas. Just imagine that each time Hamas fires a missile its leadership knows that it will never be able to replace those rockets. The pressure to conserve a big chunk of those weapons would be huge; otherwise, Hamas would be completely toothless, a fate worse than death for the average terrorist.
The large increase in casualties resulting from Israel's attack on a neighborhood in Gaza City ought to cause the Israelis to reconsider their strategy moving forward. Many pundits believe that Israel will ultimately be forced to stop fighting and pull back as a result of international pressure arising from the casualties. A smaller group argue that Hamas may be forced to give up the fight as its arsenal is depleted.
In my opinion, both of these arguments are closer to wishful thinking than to reality. Sure, they may come to pass, but it will not happen very soon. So maybe now is the time for some major changes in Israeli strategic thinking.
One of the principal goals of Hamas in the fighting has been to get Egypt to reopen its borders with Gaza. When Morsi and the Moslem Brotherhood were in control of Egypt, the border between Egypt and Gaza was an arms highway used for supplying all sorts of missiles and other weapons to Hamas. When General Sisi took office in Egypt after the ouster of the Moslem Brotherhood, the response from Hamas was to send terrorists to attack police and army facilities in the neighboring areas of Egypt. The result was that President Sisi closed the border with Gaza, ended the flow of arms and even prevented the smuggling of most consumer goods through the tunnels that linked Egypt and Gaza. It was a devastating blow to Hamas. That is why the first demand of Hamas as a condition to any cease fire has been the reopening of the Gaza-Egypt border.
The Egyptians have given no indication that they will reopen the border, but even Egypt will not want to face pressure from the USA and Europe coupled with the inevitable demands from countries like Turkey who are friendly with Hamas. Egypt has its own problems, and it surely does not want to earn the enmity of Arab and Moslem countries in the region. Should Egypt fold on this point, it will present a major dilemma for Israel. After all, what is the point of fighting yet another war with Hamas if the end result is just another lull during which Hamas rearms with more and better missiles?
This may, however, present the Israelis with a strategic opportunity. In the next day or so, the Israeli army could easily take a few square miles of land along the border between Gaza and Egypt. Israel could take over 2% of the Gaza Strip along the Egyptian border and completely seal off any chance that Hamas could rearm through that route. There might be 50,000 or so Gazans living in this area, but many would probably leave if given the choice to stay under Israeli rule or go into the remainder of Gaza. The key, however, is that Hamas would be permanently cut off from any easy flow of arms. It may be that Hamas has been able to build tunnels under the border with Egypt, but those tunnels are not that long. Imagine now that Hamas had to try to build new tunnels for two miles or longer under Israeli occupied territory. How likely is that effort to succeed?
There may be good reasons why Israel would not want to take over this tiny slice of territory. I do not address them. I merely point out that were Israel to occupy the border region between Egypt and Gaza (only on the Gaza side, of course), it would relieve the pressure that might build up on Egypt to reopen the border, and it would also create a major and likely insurmountable problem for the terrorists of Hamas. Just imagine that each time Hamas fires a missile its leadership knows that it will never be able to replace those rockets. The pressure to conserve a big chunk of those weapons would be huge; otherwise, Hamas would be completely toothless, a fate worse than death for the average terrorist.
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