President Obama just finished making a statement in which he made clear that the Malaysian Airlines plane that crashed yesterday in Ukraine was brought down by an antiaircraft missile fired from territory controlled by the Russian separatists. At least one American was on board the plane. Obama also spoke of further investigations and preserving evidence. He even added that Russian president Putin has much control over this situation and its further development.
That was all nice, and I am glad that there were no fund raisers scheduled for today so Obama had time to speak. The question remains, however, what now? We already know that the SA-11 antiaircraft system used to down the plane is not something that you can order on the internet from Amazon. There are only two possible sources for the Russian separatists to get such a system: they could have captured it from a Ukrainian army base, or the Russians could have supplied it. The problem with the former explanation is that just having this system would not allow the separatists to use it; substantial training is required in order to operate the system. We also know that almost three weeks ago, the NATO command issued a statement that intelligence was showing that Russia was introducing advanced antiaircraft missiles into the Ukrainian war zone and was training the Russian separatists in how to use such missiles. That certainly sounds definitive; the missiles and the training came from Russia.
So I ask again, what happens now with Russia? Will there be meaningful sanctions with bite? Or will we continue to see more of the meaningless sort of supposed "sanctions" of the sort used until now by the USA? Will the USA begin supplying Ukraine with weapons to defend itself, or will our help remain limited to MRE's, the field rations used by our armed forces. (Nothing provides help to a beleaguered army like some dried turkey sandwiches.) America could start by selling ammunition to the Ukrainians. We could also sell assault rifles -- it would let Obama announce that he was getting rid of thousands of those weapons from America. (Never underestimate the appeal of gun control to someone like Obama.) We could also sell trucks and Humvees and artillery and so on.
One thing is certain: if America were to begin to supply arms to Ukraine, it would force Putin and the Russians to reconsider their planned course of action. They would no longer be able to assume that they could win a war of attrition with Ukraine. They could no longer assume that their attacks would bring no consequences. Couple the supply of weapons with some meaningful sanctions on Moscow, and Putin might actually back down. After all, Russia can still back down at this point while maintaining its innocence in the entire situation. I doubt that Russia wants to escalate this towards war any more than NATO or the USA do.
One last note: yesterday, the news networks were reporting that there were 23 Americans on board the plane. Today, that number has fallen dramatically. No one seems to be able to explain the change.
That was all nice, and I am glad that there were no fund raisers scheduled for today so Obama had time to speak. The question remains, however, what now? We already know that the SA-11 antiaircraft system used to down the plane is not something that you can order on the internet from Amazon. There are only two possible sources for the Russian separatists to get such a system: they could have captured it from a Ukrainian army base, or the Russians could have supplied it. The problem with the former explanation is that just having this system would not allow the separatists to use it; substantial training is required in order to operate the system. We also know that almost three weeks ago, the NATO command issued a statement that intelligence was showing that Russia was introducing advanced antiaircraft missiles into the Ukrainian war zone and was training the Russian separatists in how to use such missiles. That certainly sounds definitive; the missiles and the training came from Russia.
So I ask again, what happens now with Russia? Will there be meaningful sanctions with bite? Or will we continue to see more of the meaningless sort of supposed "sanctions" of the sort used until now by the USA? Will the USA begin supplying Ukraine with weapons to defend itself, or will our help remain limited to MRE's, the field rations used by our armed forces. (Nothing provides help to a beleaguered army like some dried turkey sandwiches.) America could start by selling ammunition to the Ukrainians. We could also sell assault rifles -- it would let Obama announce that he was getting rid of thousands of those weapons from America. (Never underestimate the appeal of gun control to someone like Obama.) We could also sell trucks and Humvees and artillery and so on.
One thing is certain: if America were to begin to supply arms to Ukraine, it would force Putin and the Russians to reconsider their planned course of action. They would no longer be able to assume that they could win a war of attrition with Ukraine. They could no longer assume that their attacks would bring no consequences. Couple the supply of weapons with some meaningful sanctions on Moscow, and Putin might actually back down. After all, Russia can still back down at this point while maintaining its innocence in the entire situation. I doubt that Russia wants to escalate this towards war any more than NATO or the USA do.
One last note: yesterday, the news networks were reporting that there were 23 Americans on board the plane. Today, that number has fallen dramatically. No one seems to be able to explain the change.
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