What effect are the ongoing disasters of the Obama administration having on the national political scene? This is a subject often discussed on the cable news networks. Usually the conversation includes partisans from both sides, and each one loudly proclaims that things are moving in the direction of their own party. The economy is growing strongly or it is stagnant. The flood of immigrant children from Central America is showing just how inept president Obama truly is, or it is provoking a strong reaction in support of the Democrats. You get the idea. There really is not point in listening to most of the talking.
There is one measure, however, that get taken each week in the same exact manner. Rasmussen conducts a weekly poll asking likely voters if they will vote for a Republican or a Democrat for Congress in November. No candidate names are used; only the party is mentioned. These generic congressional polls do not predict individual races, but they give a pretty good indication of the ongoing trends in the electorate. (To be clear, many other pollsters besides Rasmussen take this sort of poll, but only Rasmussen does it weekly.)
Over the last two months, the Democrats have consistently held the lead in these polls. The margin for the Democrats starting two month ago, however, have been 4, 4, 3, 4, 2, 2, 3, and 1 percent. So over the two months there has been a gradual, but steady drift towards the Republicans and away from the Democrats. It is empirical proof of the damage that Obama's serial failures have been inflicting on his party.
I ought to add that the margin shown for the Democrats in these polls is not significant; it is the trend that matters. In mid term elections, the actual results tend to be 3-4% better for the Republicans than these generic polls. For example, in 2010 when the Republicans picked up over 60 seats and took the House, the Democrats led by 1% in the last of these generic polls.
Things can certainly change in the next four months before election day. On the other hand, the Democrats ought to be worried that Obama is leading them to disaster.
There is one measure, however, that get taken each week in the same exact manner. Rasmussen conducts a weekly poll asking likely voters if they will vote for a Republican or a Democrat for Congress in November. No candidate names are used; only the party is mentioned. These generic congressional polls do not predict individual races, but they give a pretty good indication of the ongoing trends in the electorate. (To be clear, many other pollsters besides Rasmussen take this sort of poll, but only Rasmussen does it weekly.)
Over the last two months, the Democrats have consistently held the lead in these polls. The margin for the Democrats starting two month ago, however, have been 4, 4, 3, 4, 2, 2, 3, and 1 percent. So over the two months there has been a gradual, but steady drift towards the Republicans and away from the Democrats. It is empirical proof of the damage that Obama's serial failures have been inflicting on his party.
I ought to add that the margin shown for the Democrats in these polls is not significant; it is the trend that matters. In mid term elections, the actual results tend to be 3-4% better for the Republicans than these generic polls. For example, in 2010 when the Republicans picked up over 60 seats and took the House, the Democrats led by 1% in the last of these generic polls.
Things can certainly change in the next four months before election day. On the other hand, the Democrats ought to be worried that Obama is leading them to disaster.
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