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Thursday, August 30, 2018

A Bizarre Start To The CT Governor's Race

The governor's race in Connecticut this year features Democrat Ned Lamont against Republican newcomer Bob Stefanowski.  The primary was just a few weeks ago, and the general election race has started in a rather bizarre way.  Let me give you an example:  in the last few days, Lamont has been lambasting Stefanowski on social media as someone who wants to raise property taxes while he (Lamont) would cut them.  It's unusual enough to have a Democrat accuse the GOP candidate of wanting to raise taxes while claiming the mantle of tax-cutter for himself.  In this race, however, the attempt is truly bizarre.  During the primary, Stefanowski based his entire campaign on promises to cut the state's high income tax, and even to phase it out if possible.  Stefanowski also called for reductions in corporate taxes in order to reinvigorate the state's stagnant economy which has still not recovered from the 2008 crash.  Stefanowski also called for cutting wasteful state spending.  Meanwhile, during the Democrat primary Lamont called for raising the income tax and even putting tolls back on state highways.  And to top it all off, property tax rates are set by towns and cities across the state, not by the governor.  That means that avowed tax-raiser Lamont wants to label avowed tax-cutter Stefanowski as a high tax guy based upon supposed positions on the property tax rates that the governor can't change.  Bizarre!

Lamont has a history of faltering in general election races.  He has run statewide many times in the past, but he has never won even in very blue Connecticut.  He seems to be starting early trying to throw away the race.  He and his advisers must assume that state residents did not pay any attention to the primary races.  Still, it was hard to live in CT during the last three months and not hear Bob Stefanowski touting his plan to cut taxes.  People will remember that and will understand how lame Lamont's new position really is.

For what it's worth, the polls in the race are also closing.  Right as of the primary, Lamont was showing as ahead by 17% in the polls.  That lead has shrunk in just a few weeks to 9% in the most recent match up.  At this point, however, the polls are meaningless.  Still, if Lamont keeps this up, he may manage to lose by 20%.

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