There's a new senate poll out in the Pennsylvania senate race. Democrat Bob Casey is ahead by 13 points over Republican Lou Barletta. That should have the Dems overjoyed, right? The problem, however, is that the size of Casey's lead keeps shrinking. As each new poll comes out, the lead is 1 or 2 points less. Now, Casey no longer has the support of more than 50% of the electorate.
It's still a pretty strong bet that Casey will win, but this seat which was once rated safe Democrat should now be moved to either likely Dem. If the motion in the polls continues, it could switch to leans Dem.
The key here is that the voters in PA know Casey. He has been in the senate for a long time. Barletta, however, is a relative unknown except in the congressional district he has represented. If voters like Barletta as they get to know him better (which seems to be happening), he could actually pull off a victory here. This is just another state where the Republican candidate for senate is doing better than expected against the Democrat incumbent.
It's still a pretty strong bet that Casey will win, but this seat which was once rated safe Democrat should now be moved to either likely Dem. If the motion in the polls continues, it could switch to leans Dem.
The key here is that the voters in PA know Casey. He has been in the senate for a long time. Barletta, however, is a relative unknown except in the congressional district he has represented. If voters like Barletta as they get to know him better (which seems to be happening), he could actually pull off a victory here. This is just another state where the Republican candidate for senate is doing better than expected against the Democrat incumbent.
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