Mayor Gillum won the Democrat primary for governor in Florida today. What does this mean?
1. The polls were all wrong. The Gillum victory is more of an upset for the pollsters than President Trump's win in 2016. There were many polls of this race over the last month. Not a single poll put Gillum above fourth place in the race. He was an also ran, not a factor in the race at all if the polls were to be believed. Now, he's won.
2. He's far left, much more so than the other candidates who ran in today's primary. Gillum is the Bernie Sanders' candidate in the primary. With the positions he's already taken, he will be very far left in the general election in November.
3. Gillum got only about a third of the votes, so he has major work just to get all the Democrats behind him. Gillum is African American and ran strong in black neighborhoods. Will he be able to put together a coalition to win in November?
4. The media is already pushing him. I had to laugh at the article in Vox that announced both that Gillum had won and that the experts say that the fall race will be a toss up. These are the same experts who said that Gillum had no chance to win today. There aren't even any polls running Gillum against the GOP winner DeSantis. That means when Vox says that "experts" say the race will be a toss up, Vox is just making it all up.
5. Gillum's victory today actually makes it much more likely that the GOP will win in November. There is a sizeable chunk of the Democrat base that will vote for a far left candidate. Once the independents and Republican voters get added to the mix, the far left segment is much too small to win many elections. In fact, the likelihood is that Gillum will lead the top of the Florida Democrat ticket in such a weak manner that other Democrat candidates for offices like the Senate and Congress will be hurt.
1. The polls were all wrong. The Gillum victory is more of an upset for the pollsters than President Trump's win in 2016. There were many polls of this race over the last month. Not a single poll put Gillum above fourth place in the race. He was an also ran, not a factor in the race at all if the polls were to be believed. Now, he's won.
2. He's far left, much more so than the other candidates who ran in today's primary. Gillum is the Bernie Sanders' candidate in the primary. With the positions he's already taken, he will be very far left in the general election in November.
3. Gillum got only about a third of the votes, so he has major work just to get all the Democrats behind him. Gillum is African American and ran strong in black neighborhoods. Will he be able to put together a coalition to win in November?
4. The media is already pushing him. I had to laugh at the article in Vox that announced both that Gillum had won and that the experts say that the fall race will be a toss up. These are the same experts who said that Gillum had no chance to win today. There aren't even any polls running Gillum against the GOP winner DeSantis. That means when Vox says that "experts" say the race will be a toss up, Vox is just making it all up.
5. Gillum's victory today actually makes it much more likely that the GOP will win in November. There is a sizeable chunk of the Democrat base that will vote for a far left candidate. Once the independents and Republican voters get added to the mix, the far left segment is much too small to win many elections. In fact, the likelihood is that Gillum will lead the top of the Florida Democrat ticket in such a weak manner that other Democrat candidates for offices like the Senate and Congress will be hurt.
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