There are two very interesting polls in senate races that ought to be giving Democrats heartburn at the moment.
The first is in Florida and was taken by Florida Atlantic University. It shows Scott (R) beating the incumbent Nelson (D) by 6%. The numbers are 45 to 39%. It's still early in the election campaign, but a margin this large against the incumbent is a very bad sign for Nelson.
The second poll is in New Jersey. That poll was taken by Quinnipiac, so it should be skewed toward the Democrats. It shows the Democrat incumbent Menendez at 43% and his Republican challenger Bob Hugin at 37%. In New Jersey, unlike in Florida, the Republican is essentially an unknown. (Scott is the current governor of Florida.) That means that the poll is basically a referendum on Menendez. If he's only getting 43% is a Democrat skewed poll, he is in big trouble. Sure, Hugin can run a campaign that manages to disqualify himself as a valid candidate, but that seems unlikely. If Hugin can come across as a reasonable choice, then the bulk of the 20% who have no preferred candidate are likely to break for Hugin by a big margin. That puts Menendez at great jeopardy of losing.
For the longest time, the media has been talking about Democrats who are threatened in this upcoming election because of strong support for Trump in their states. Neither of the two discussed above have been on these lists. It's a bad sign for the Democrats in the senate.
The first is in Florida and was taken by Florida Atlantic University. It shows Scott (R) beating the incumbent Nelson (D) by 6%. The numbers are 45 to 39%. It's still early in the election campaign, but a margin this large against the incumbent is a very bad sign for Nelson.
The second poll is in New Jersey. That poll was taken by Quinnipiac, so it should be skewed toward the Democrats. It shows the Democrat incumbent Menendez at 43% and his Republican challenger Bob Hugin at 37%. In New Jersey, unlike in Florida, the Republican is essentially an unknown. (Scott is the current governor of Florida.) That means that the poll is basically a referendum on Menendez. If he's only getting 43% is a Democrat skewed poll, he is in big trouble. Sure, Hugin can run a campaign that manages to disqualify himself as a valid candidate, but that seems unlikely. If Hugin can come across as a reasonable choice, then the bulk of the 20% who have no preferred candidate are likely to break for Hugin by a big margin. That puts Menendez at great jeopardy of losing.
For the longest time, the media has been talking about Democrats who are threatened in this upcoming election because of strong support for Trump in their states. Neither of the two discussed above have been on these lists. It's a bad sign for the Democrats in the senate.
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