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Tuesday, August 21, 2018

They're Going To Be Disappointed

Michael Cohen has made a tentative plea deal according to ABC News.  The media is breathlessly awaiting further news in which Cohen has given some important nugget of critical proof to Mueller about collusion between Russia and the Trump campaign.  It's going to be a long, long wait.  In fact, it will be a never-ending wait.  The simple truth is that Cohen doesn't have anything of the sort to offer (provided he tells the truth.)  Cohen wasn't even being investigated by the Mueller team; the investigation was by the US Attorney for the SDNY and centered on bank fraud with regard to Cohen's taxi business.  It could be that Cohen broke the law; we have no way to know that.  What we do know, though, is that Trump had nothing to do with that taxi business, so there's no connection to be offered.

There is the Stormy Daniels payment of $130,000 that Cohen arranged through a shell corporation.  That had nothing to do with Russia though.  It also is not something that forms the basis for an attack on Trump.  Did Trump know about the payment?  Maybe, but so what?  Trump didn't have any obligation to prevent such a payment; indeed, the payment was perfectly legal.  And as for reporting that payment, there is a real question whether or not it needed to be listed separately by the campaign.  After all, the Democrats funneled $13 million of campaign cash to Fusion GPS for the Trump dossier but called it legal services by giving the cash to their attorney and having him pay Fusion.  If that is permissible, then surely using non-campaign cash to pay about 1% as much to Stormy through an attorney is likewise fine. 

This is just another of those big news stories that turn out to be nothing much of importance.

UPDATE:  The NY Times is now reporting that the plea deal includes no requirement that Cohen cooperate in any other investigation.  That's the end of any hope by the Dems and the media that this has anything to do with Trump (if true -- it is the Times after all.)
UPDATE 2:  Cohen surprised and pled that he paid women what is being called "hush money" by the media at the direction of the candidate.  He is pleading guilty among other things to attempting to commit campaign finance fraud.  Until the transcript is available, it is hard to see just how this affects Trump, if at all.  After all, if Trump paid his own money to these women, it would be perfectly legal.  The question will be how much Cohen involves Trump is some sort of plan to do this in a way that would violate the campaign finance laws.  If Cohen says that it was always planned that Trump would pay him back for the payments, the Trump would not have done anything illegal.  We will have to wait and see.

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