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Saturday, August 18, 2018

The Conflicting Views Of Connecticut's Problems -- the 2018 Governor's Race

Now that the primary is over in Connecticut, we have two candidates for Governor:  Ned Lamont, the Democrat and his Republican opponent Bob Stefanowski.  The biggest problem the state faces, by far, is our faltering economy, so I decided to look to see what each candidate proposes to help fix that mess.

The growth of the economy in CT is almost non-existent.  Over the last 15 years, we have the second lowest growth of personal income of any state.  Very wealthy people are leaving the state to avoid both the estate tax and the high income taxes.  Manufacturing jobs have left the state in a steady stream.  Office jobs have also left the state in the same way.  Connecticut is one of the few states that has fewer jobs today than it had just prior to the big recession in 2008-9.  As a result, many young people are moving out of state to find better work opportunities.

Then there's the problem with financing the state government.  The current governor Dan Malloy presided over two of the largest state tax increases in history.  Even so, there is an almost constant shortfall in state revenues that leads to budget deficits each year.  Meanwhile, state spending has soared, particularly on payments to state employees who are now much better paid than workers in private businesses in the state.

So how do the candidates propose to deal with these problems?

Stefanowski wants to cut taxes and spending.  He argues that lower taxes will attract businesses to locate in the state and will keep the wealthy from departing.  The extra business and people will raise state revenues to restore balance to the budget.  This view seems to correspond to history.  Connecticut was an extremely fast growing state during the 15 years just prior to the enactment of the state income tax.  We attracted all sorts of people and businesses from high tax neighbors like New York and Massachusetts.  Restoring that difference in tax rates could restart the engine of growth.

Lamont seems to have no plan other than to continue the disastrous policies followed by Malloy.  On his web site, Lamont talks of the need for the state to have "expanded revenue streams".  That's political speak for still higher taxes.  Lamont also talks of the need to expand vocational training so that we will have the workers needed to fill jobs.  Of course, if the high taxes are driving the jobs away, one has to wonder what all those trained workers will do.  The likely answer is that they will move elsewhere to get jobs.  Basically, that's Lamont's entire economic plan aside from promising to work on better transportation.  He has no real plan to get the CT economy started again.

For me, there is a clear choice.  We need to support the man who actually has a plan to help get our economy moving.  That man is Bob Stefanowski.

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