I wrote earlier about the polls in the senate races in Florida and New Jersey and the bad news they had for Democrats. Since then another poll was released. This one is in Wisconsin and is by Marquette University which is usually a middle of the road pollster. It shows incumbent Democrat Baldwin ahead of challenger Republican Vukmir by only 2%. The numbers are 49 to 47%.
It's worth noting that all the rating people, like Larry Sabato and Cook's Political Report, have the seat rated as likely Democrat or better. The idea that a poll shows the race within the margin of error on the poll is a shocker.
For a long time last spring, Wisconsin was on the radar with Tammy Baldwin being considered a prime target for a GOP gain. Then as the primary approached Baldwin's lead grew and grew. Now it seems that all that really happened is that some Republicans who were engaged in a primary battle couldn't bring themselves to vote for the primary candidate they opposed, so the GOP vote was suppressed.
It's also worth noting that 48% of poll respondents had no opinion of Vukmir. That means that if Vukmir can come across well in the campaign, it could lead to an easy victory.
If Wisconsin turns into another senate battleground, that will make it ever more likely that the GOP will make some nice gains in November.
There is, of course, a long time until then. Things can, and surely will, change.
It's worth noting that all the rating people, like Larry Sabato and Cook's Political Report, have the seat rated as likely Democrat or better. The idea that a poll shows the race within the margin of error on the poll is a shocker.
For a long time last spring, Wisconsin was on the radar with Tammy Baldwin being considered a prime target for a GOP gain. Then as the primary approached Baldwin's lead grew and grew. Now it seems that all that really happened is that some Republicans who were engaged in a primary battle couldn't bring themselves to vote for the primary candidate they opposed, so the GOP vote was suppressed.
It's also worth noting that 48% of poll respondents had no opinion of Vukmir. That means that if Vukmir can come across well in the campaign, it could lead to an easy victory.
If Wisconsin turns into another senate battleground, that will make it ever more likely that the GOP will make some nice gains in November.
There is, of course, a long time until then. Things can, and surely will, change.
No comments:
Post a Comment