Here's a bit of news about recent polling. In the many generic congressional polls taken in the last three weeks, the average is showing the Democrats ahead by 2.3%. Historically, the Democrats have no chance of winning Congress unless they are about 6% ahead. That is because there are so many districts where Democrats win by 75% or more, so the GOP has the advantage in the other districts. (and before you buy into the gerrymandering claims of the Dems, remember these heavily Democrat districts are minority districts required by the Voting Rights Act.) What all this means is that based upon the most recent batch of polls, it looks like the GOP should retain the House.
Using polls in August for the purpose of predicting the outcome in November is silly, of course, That didn't stop the mainstream media from predicting a blue wave based upon such polls last fall when the elections were almost a year away. Now, however, when the results have gotten really much better for the Republicans, the media is mostly silent about them. Think about it. Have you heard anyone on TV telling you that the polls are showing such a big shift?
The polls right now actually say more about media bias than they do about the outcome in November. The media does itself no favors when it tries to silence news it doesn't like.
Using polls in August for the purpose of predicting the outcome in November is silly, of course, That didn't stop the mainstream media from predicting a blue wave based upon such polls last fall when the elections were almost a year away. Now, however, when the results have gotten really much better for the Republicans, the media is mostly silent about them. Think about it. Have you heard anyone on TV telling you that the polls are showing such a big shift?
The polls right now actually say more about media bias than they do about the outcome in November. The media does itself no favors when it tries to silence news it doesn't like.
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