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Friday, August 10, 2018

Is The Turkish Economy Collapsing?

In the last year, the Turkish currency has lost about 45% of its value (in dollars).  That's a terrible sign of an economy in crisis.  Sure, the dollar has been strong against nearly every world currency, but the Turkish currency collapse puts it in a very poor position.  Imports to Turkey from the US have doubled in price.  Those from the European Union have gone up by nearly as much.  This means that for the average Turk, imported goods are out of reach for the most part.  Today, things got so bad that the president of Turkey called upon citizens to change the dollars, euros and gold they are "hiding under their pillows" into Turkish currency.  This means that there is most likely a shortage of hard currency in the country.

President Erdogan is blaming outsiders for the collapse of the currency.  He doesn't mention which outsiders, but he says "they have their dollars", so most likely he means the USA.  That's an odd tack for an American ally to take, especially since it is untrue, but Erdogan is not the usual ally.  He's an Islamist strongman who seems to want to claim leadership of the Moslem world.

It will be interesting to see if Erdogan's ploy of blaming outsiders works in Turkey.  It would not take much for economic problems to lead to major unrest and the replacement of the government.  On the other hand, in Venezuela, the value of the currency has fallen by more than 99.9%, people are literally starving, but the Maduro government continues in power.  One would have thought by now that the Venezuelans would have tossed him out, but it hasn't happened.  Instead, a great many people are just fleeing from the country.

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